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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Arizona

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DAmish Shah71.1%
  • RThomas James "Jay" Feely, IV27.8%
  • LMonica Maria Alponte1%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DJonathan Michael Nez22.5%
  • REli Crane76.4%
  • LCurtis Goodwin1.1%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DYassamin Ansari100%
  • ODavid Wayne Redkey0%
  • OAlan Aversa0%
  • OJacob Parkman0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DGreg Stanton88.2%
  • RM. Zuhdi "Zuhdi" Jasser10.8%
  • OTisha Benoit1%
  • OSteven Sanders0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DElizabeth Lee4%
  • RMark Lamb96%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DJoAnna "Jo" Mendoza75%
  • RJuan Ciscomani25%
  • OGary Swing0%
  • LJereme Lance Peters0%
  • OMichael Dorland0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DAdelita Grijalva98%
  • RDaniel Francis Butierez, Sr.2%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DBernadette M. Greene-Placentia4.2%
  • RAbraham "Abe" Hamadeh95.8%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DDanielle "Dani" Sterbinsky2%
  • RPaul Anthony Gosar98%
  • OWilliam Perry0%
Details & rationale →

Arizona · Race details

District 1

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DAmish ShahDemocratic71.1%
  • RThomas James "Jay" Feely, IVRepublican27.8%
  • LMonica Maria AlponteLibertarian1%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)