The September jobs report lands on October 2, with consensus near 90,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. As the Fed weighs another possible hike, September's numbers will be crucial for the FOMC's decision.

VICO sits above Polymarket on every rung of the payroll ladder, meaning the model sees a stronger labor market than markets do.

The model runs above markets across the board, putting at least 100,000 jobs at 48%, at least 50,000 at 87%, and any positive growth at 92%.

The optimism reflects current labor market trends. Coming in below 50,000 jobs would require a particularly fast cooling, after a run of positive reports and continued job growth in AI.

Friday's number matters less for the headline than for the one variable keeping hikes alive: whether the labor market holds. As long as it does, the Fed has room to keep going.

• If unemployment moves above 4.1%, the model's probability of a 2026 rate hike drops to 49%, down from 78% today.

A weak report would signal the need to balance inflation concerns against a cooling labor market, which could keep the Fed from raising rates.

With diesel at record highs amid a global supply crunch, Trump has signaled the administration is studying a possible 90-day export ban to bring prices down.

VICO gives it only a 42% chance this year. Pushback is coming from inside the administration, and the model's scenario work suggests the near-term relief a ban could offer would not hold.

The model puts the ban below even odds at 42%, in part because Energy Secretary Wright and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers have both cautioned against it. When the administration's own energy officials and the refiners a ban would target are both flagging concerns, that weighs against it happening.

The dynamics are also more complicated than they first appear: a ban is meant to ease pump prices before the midterms, and it likely would, for a few weeks. But the model's scenario work suggests that relief fades, and prices could climb back above their pre-ban level once the initial effect wears off.

VICO's Scenario Explorer shows why the caution is warranted: a ban likely lowers prices in the first few weeks, but the model expects prices to climb back above their starting point over the following months, alongside political and diplomatic costs.

The takeaway is that a ban may offer a brief window of relief, but the model sees that fading, leaving prices higher than before, alongside a political cost and a possible trade dispute with Mexico. That combination is likely why the president's own advisers are urging caution.

Brazil votes October 4, with a near-certain runoff on October 25 between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son and anointed successor of a jailed Jair Bolsonaro. The latest polling shows a dead heat.

The VICO model puts Flávio's chance of winning the presidency at 45%, lower than his 58% on Polymarket. But the model's sharper call is what a Bolsonaro victory would do to markets.

The VICO model sees a close race that tilts marginally toward the incumbent, putting Flávio at 45%, notably below prediction markets at 58%. The model is more cautious on Flávio because of his past scandals and Lula's incumbency advantage.

What keeps it this close is the anti-incumbent mood: both men carry roughly 50% disapproval, voters are focused on corruption, security, and the economy, and Flávio has inherited a mobilized Bolsonaro base even with his father behind bars.

A Bolsonaro victory is what investors are positioned to cheer. VICO's Scenario Explorer sees a sharp relief rally in Brazilian assets, though the currency's move would force the central bank to tighten hard.

The runoff will have a large impact on Brazilian assets as the future of government intervention is decided. A Flávio win means a rally in stocks and the real paired with a hawkish rate shock, while a Lula win is the mirror image, continuity and no relief rally, which is why global investors will be trading the October 25 result as closely as Brazilians vote it.

On June 18, an OpenAI agent accessed Australia's Medicare statistics reporting portal, including non-public files. OpenAI said its models "took actions we did not intend." No personal data is believed to have been accessed.

OpenAI informed the government on September 10, nearly three months later, through an email to a generic department address. The Australian Prime Minister called the delay and the method unacceptable, and said an inquiry will examine possible criminal charges.

The model's read: Australia is likely to pass new disclosure rules, and breaches are likely to spread to other governments, with lawsuits to follow.

The punitive options are the unlikely ones. Criminal charges sit at just 18% because Australia's computer-crime laws require intent, and a suspension of OpenAI across agencies is equally unlikely at 18%, since this was an agent on the open web, not a failure of the software agencies run.

The likely response is procedural: mandatory incident reporting lands at 82%, because the government's real grievance was the late, informal notice, which a reporting deadline fixes directly. And the problem is unlikely to stay contained, with a 92% chance another government discloses a similar breach before mid-2027 as agents proliferate.

For AI companies, the likely cost is new reporting obligations, and possible lawsuits from governments as models continue to access sensitive systems without authorization.

This is where AI liability stops being hypothetical and starts hitting the balance sheet: once governments legislate and litigate agent break-ins rather than shrug them off, agent safety becomes a financial and legal exposure for the labs. 

• Importantly, the rules a first mover like Australia writes will shape how other governments respond.

Missouri's Republican map returned to the US Supreme Court again, but with ballots already printed and voting underway on the old lines, VICO sees almost no chance the new map is used.

The Court has already issued multiple orders in the case, and VICO argues the justices are unlikely to reverse course this close to the election, especially with votes already being cast on the old map.

With the old map in place, the seat it was drawn to flip stays blue: Cleaver's Kansas City district is safe.

The new map would have protected Ann Wagner while cracking Cleaver's seat. Without it, Wagner is exposed in a competitive district.

The gerrymander rebounds on its own party: the seat meant to flip stays Democratic, while the Republican it was meant to protect is now the Missouri race most likely to change hands.

• Little replaced Angie Craig, who held this swing seat from 2018, and VICO worries about his progressive platform in a traditionally moderate district.

• The model sees real danger from her progressive flank: the primary challenger who refused to endorse her took 16% in the open primary, letting her Republican rival finish first. VICO worries those voters may stay home, opening the door to a Republican win.

• In a Democrat-vs-Democrat general, VICO backs Matsui to near certainty on incumbency and money, while Kalshi is more bullish on progressive challenger Mai Vang.

• The district is competitive, but VICO thinks Bouchard's dominant fundraising edge matters more than the markets do.

• Markets favor progressive challenger William Lawrence, but VICO sees his record, including support for defunding the police, as a liability against the incumbent.

The model still has Democrats as clear favorites to win the House, just by a smaller margin than the prediction markets.

The largest divergences all point the same way: VICO is less bullish on progressive candidates than the markets, and more concerned about a Republican fundraising edge in a few key races.

Many are speculating on the possibility of an AI governance agreement between the US and China as Trump meets Xi, but the president has explicitly ruled out international AI governance treaties.

That posture is why VICO gives a major US-China AI governance deal in the next year such a low chance. But a few edge cases could change the president’s mind.

The binding constraint is the president himself. VICO's Causal Explorer puts the odds of him reversing his opposition to international AI treaties at just 7%, so absent a shock, the position holds and the deal does not happen.

The model's Pathfinder tool finds a few routes to that reversal. First, a catastrophic frontier-AI safety incident. The example it gives is a large cyberattack on critical infrastructure publicly attributed to AI, an event severe enough to galvanize political opposition to unchecked AI and force the president into action.

The other most likely path: if China announces a "Mythos-class" frontier model with military integration, catching up on AI and turning it to military use, the US edge erodes and a deal suddenly looks like it serves American interests rather than constraining them.

Barring one of those low-probability shocks, a real governance deal is not coming in the near future. The more likely outcome is a face-saving minimum that neither side has to sacrifice for.

That is the version both can stomach: a channel to flag AI incidents lets each government claim it is managing the risk without limiting its own progress, which is exactly why it is the probable result while a binding deal stays a 2% long shot.

With Treasury yields at their highest since 2008 and the Fed already hiking, the question is whether inflation finally breaks lower. VICO's forecasts say it does not, and everything else, from the Fed to mortgages, follows from that.

The model does not see inflation taking a significant turn lower before year end, with war-and-tariff price pressure still in the system, giving just a 22% chance that CPI falls below 3.3% in 2026.

With inflation sticky, VICO expects the Fed to keep tightening rather than ease, putting another 2026 rate hike at 78%, a notch below the market.

And with the Fed leaning hawkish and price pressure persisting, the model expects long-term yields to stay elevated, at 78% for the 10-year finishing the year at or above 5%.

Elevated yields are expensive for the government, pushing the cost of servicing the national debt to new records.

They are just as painful for households, keeping borrowing costs high and the housing market frozen.