In her State of the European Union address on September 16, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered to open the door for Canada to become the EU's first associate member.

The model expects Canada to get a slow, contested status and a fast American tariff, in that order.

Associate member status sits at 38%. The EU needs unanimous approval from all 27 member states to approve a formal addition, meaning a drawn out process designed to get every single EU member on board.

But a formal title is not the only route to further integration. Instead, the EU and Canada can sign bilateral partnerships in key industries which don’t require approval from every EU state. That option is 80% in the next year.

Any talks of a deal are likely to provoke the wrath of President Trump, who called the associate membership a “hostile act.” By year’s end, the VICO model gives a 72% chance for retaliatory tariffs on the EU in response to talks.

European exporters to the US, like large automakers, run the highest risk of being targeted by new tariffs if the President decides to level them on the EU.