With diesel at record highs amid a global supply crunch, Trump has signaled the administration is studying a possible 90-day export ban to bring prices down.

VICO gives it only a 42% chance this year. Pushback is coming from inside the administration, and the model's scenario work suggests the near-term relief a ban could offer would not hold.

The model puts the ban below even odds at 42%, in part because Energy Secretary Wright and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers have both cautioned against it. When the administration's own energy officials and the refiners a ban would target are both flagging concerns, that weighs against it happening.

The dynamics are also more complicated than they first appear: a ban is meant to ease pump prices before the midterms, and it likely would, for a few weeks. But the model's scenario work suggests that relief fades, and prices could climb back above their pre-ban level once the initial effect wears off.

VICO's Scenario Explorer shows why the caution is warranted: a ban likely lowers prices in the first few weeks, but the model expects prices to climb back above their starting point over the following months, alongside political and diplomatic costs.

The takeaway is that a ban may offer a brief window of relief, but the model sees that fading, leaving prices higher than before, alongside a political cost and a possible trade dispute with Mexico. That combination is likely why the president's own advisers are urging caution.