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The reporting on this front page — forecasts with live probabilities, the signals that move them, and the stories behind both — assembled as an email edition by the VICO desk.
LATEST ISSUE
The Alignment Problem
Trump x Xi Summit, Treasury Yields, US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, Greenland Deal, Midterms, Missouri Redistricting
READ THE ISSUE →THE ARCHIVE26 ISSUES
Ahead of the Curve
We Called It: Fed Rate Hike, AI Regulation, Red Sea Houthis, UK Dissolution, Trump Xi Summit, We Called It: CLARITY Act, Midterms
Talks about Talks
German AfD Election, Israel-UK Sanctions, Russia x Ukraine, Missouri Redistricting, New Hampshire and Texas Midterms, AI Bills, Inflation, Ford Transportation Letter, Oil
Hike-ing Season
Warsh Rate Hike, South Korea Tariffs, New Apple CEO, US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, House Back in Session, California AI Bills, Supreme Court Size
Tightening the Screws
We Called It: US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, UK Taxes, Canada Tariffs, US Nuclear Shipping, Anthropic IPO, Supreme Court Mail-In Ballots, H-1B Visa Fee, Alaska Senate Race
Bombing the Deal
US x Oman, US x South Korea, Israel, 2028 Primary Preview, Tuesday Primaries, ABC Suing FCC, Treasuries, Canada Tariffs, Moderna
The Establishment Strikes Back
Wisconsin Governor Primary, DSA, Vaccines, Lisa Cook, We Called It: US x Iran, Russia x NATO, Alberta Secession, Job Growth, Fed Rates, US Treasuries
Just The Undercard
Michigan Senate Primary, Midterms, Senate Bills, Government Shutdown, Yen, GDP Growth, KOSPI, AstraZeneca , Data Center Polarization, US x Iran, Red Sea, Spain Schengen Movement Area
Choke Points
US x Iran, Saudi Arabia x Houthis, Israel Elections, Saudi Arabia Civil Nuclear Deal, MAGA on Ukraine, Michigan Senate Primary, Mitch McConnell, Fed Decision, Inflation, AI and Jobs
Sink or Swim
Red Sea, US x Iran, Andy Burnham, Maine Senate, Clarity Act, Canada Tariffs, Chinese Open Language Models, July Fed Decision, We Called It: The World Cup
Déjà Vu
US x Iran, Housing Bill, Ukraine aid, Supreme Court, OpenAI Lawsuits, Trade Deficit, AI Chip Selloff, World Cup Final
Memorandum of Misunderstanding
US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, US x Spain, Nigel Farage, Graham Platner, Michigan/Wisconsin Primaries, June Inflation, Tech Layoffs, Russian Bond Market
America 250 & the Next 50
The Next 50, NYC Rent Freeze, Supreme Court, Iran, Trust Busting, US Buying Tech Equity
Downing and Out
Starmer Out, Iran, Colombia Election, Housing Bill, Trump Senate Meeting, House Primaries, Political Lawsuits, June Jobs Report, Fed Decisions, China Rare Earth Minerals, SpaceX Stock, World Cup Odds
MOU or IOU?
US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, Iran Treaty, Alaska Senate Election, FISA 702 Expiration, SpaceX IPO, Claude Fable 5 Shutdown, Oil Prices, VICO Indices
Fed Up?
Inflation, Fed Rates, South Korean Economy, SpaceX/OpenAI IPOs, Iran, Chagos Islands, Elections/Referendums, California Elections, DC Mayoral Election, Ukraine Aid, War Powers Act
See You In November
Tuesday Primaries, Maine Senate Race, ICE Funding, Next DNI, VICO on Iran, Israel x Hezbollah, Global Elections, May Jobs/Inflation, Oil, OpenAI Suit, South Korean Stock Exchange
Deal or No Deal?
Iran, Russia x Ukraine, Cuba, DNI, Alberta, US Expansion, Anti-Weaponization Fund, Green Card Ruling, Texas Senate, Federal NDA, Alabama Redistricting, Oil, Plutonium, AI x Papacy, Russia Pipeline
Drone Striking the Iron While Its Hot
Russia x Ukraine, Iran, Keir Starmer, Nigeria, Cuba, Texas and Nebraska Senate Races, Sports Gambling Ads, Utah Data Center, Oil, US x China Summit, Warsh Confirmed
Running Hot
VICO on April Inflation, Federal Gas Tax, Hantavirus, VICO on Virginia Redistricting, Other Redistricting, House Control, Iran, US x Israel, Russia x Ukraine, Taiwan Arms Deal, US Cuba
Strike Two!
US Strikes Iran, Russia x Ukraine, US x China Summit, Senate/Governors’ Elections, Oil, UK Tariffs, April Jobs Report, NYC Taxes, US Debt
(Re)Drawing the Line(s)
Virginia Redistricting, Florida Redistricting, Voting Rights Act, US x Iran, Oil Prices, OPEC, Israel Elections, Israel x Lebanon, USMCA, Spirit Airlines, Musk v Altman, Manus x Meta Deal
This Too Shall Not Pass
US x Iran, US x China Summit, Japan Arms Ban, Tariff Refund Process, Strait of Hormuz, CEO Tracker, Alaska Senate Election, Cabinet Tracker
VICO Future Monitor
US x Iran, Hungary, California Gubernatorial Election, Trump x Pope Leo XIV, Strait of Hormuz x Inflation, Semiconductors
VICO Future Monitor
US x Iran, Next Attorney General, Cabinet Departures, Supreme Court Vacancy, Maine Senate, Job Growth, Inflation, Semiconductors
VICO Future Monitor
Oil Prices, Recession Odds, Iran, US x Iran, China x Taiwan, Hungarian Elections, Looking back: VICO Called DHS, DHS Funding, Birthright Citizenship
VICO Future Monitor
Oil Prices, Inflation, 2026 Rate Changes, VICO Quant, Iran, Israel x Hezbollah, DHS, California Governor Primary, Sports Betting Prediction Market Ban