Memorandum of Misunderstanding

Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.

What we are following this week:

• Global Politics: US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, US x Spain, Nigel Farage

• Domestic Politics: Graham Platner, Michigan/Wisconsin Primaries

• Economics: June Inflation, Tech Layoffs, Russian Bond Market

Global Politics: US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, US x Spain, Nigel Farage

At the NATO summit in Turkey this week, President Trump told reporters the Iranian MOU is “over” and that the US will continue strikes against Iran this week. The President also met with President Zelensky and promised the US would grant Ukraine’s request for a license to produce Patriot missiles. President Trump made more headlines at the summit when he threatened to cut off all trade with Spain over NATO funding. Finally, to provide legitimacy following a scandal, Nigel Farage announced he would resign to trigger an election in his district, which he plans to stand for, setting up a race with satirical candidate Count Binface. This week:

We Called It: US x Iran

• Since the MOU was signed, the VICO model has been high on the odds of a total collapse and a resumption of strikes.

• With the President calling the MOU “over,” and strikes resuming between both the US and Iran, we believe this constitutes the de facto collapse of the ceasefire. The terms of the agreement are being repeatedly violated, and a deal to permanently end the conflict remains distant.

• Week after week, the VICO model’s skeptical read from day one of the conflict has been vindicated by repeated collapses in negotiations.

• What next?

  • 22%: The probability that the US blockades the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days.

  • 12%: The probability that Iran loses the ability to militarily control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days.

  • 1%: The probability that US troops land in Iran to occupy or invade territory in the next 30 days.

  • 18%: The probability that the US and Iran agree to a new temporary ceasefire in the next 14 days.

  • 75%: The probability that the US and Iran continue exchanging ‘tit-for-tat’ strikes through the next 14 days.

We Called It: Russia x Ukraine

• Three weeks ago, in an X Post, we put the likelihood of the US granting a license to Ukraine to manufacture American missiles at 72% this year.

  • The President announced yesterday that the US would approve the license.

• Oil Refineries

  • 88%: The probability that Ukraine will successfully attack a large Russian oil refinery in the next 14 days.

  • 42%: The probability that the Russian government announces a limit on civilian use of oil in 2026.

    • The VICO model argues that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries provide a serious threat to the countries oil supply, and could lead to restrictions on civilian use.

• Territory

  • 48%: The probability that Ukraine has a net gain in territory between now and the end of 2026.

  • 22%: The probability that Ukraine takes and controls any territory in Crimea by the end of 2027.

US x Spain

• 12%: The probability that the US ceases trade with Spain in 2026.

• 38%: The probability that the US puts additional tariffs on Spain in 2026.

  • The VICO model points out that even if the President were serious about targeting trade with Spain, he would have to go after the EU more broadly, because Spain’s trade policy is governed by EU regulatory bodies. However, further EU tariffs are possible later this year.

Nigel Farage

• 95%: The probability that Farage wins the Clacton by-election. (Polymarket: 91%)

• 44%: The probability that Count Binface reaches at least 30% of the vote in the Clacton by-election if Farage is the only major party candidate.

Domestic Politics: Graham Platner, Michigan/Wisconsin Primaries

Graham Platner has officially dropped out of the Maine Senate race following a report of sexual assault. Maine Democrats are exploring options to replace him before the drop-out deadline. Meanwhile, in Michigan’s Democratic Senate Primary, Mallory McMorrow officially dropped out, leaving a progressive v moderate battle between El-Sayed and Stevens. Next door in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for Governor, DSA-backed Francesca Hong is performing well in early polling. This week:

We Called It: Graham Platner

• The VICO model has consistently been low on Platner’s odds, partially due to concerns over a potential post-primary drop-out due to scandal. Here’s an excerpt from our Platner forecast over a month ago:

  • June 3, 2026: 17% “The strongest case for a lower probability is the material risk of a post-primary withdrawal before the July 13 deadline, driven by escalating intra-party fractures like Senator John Fetterman labeling Platner a "creep" and the cancellation of key D.C. fundraisers.”

  • VICO Ticker: VICODCGW

• Replacement Frontrunners

  • 62%: The probability that Troy Jackson replaces Platner as the nominee. (Polymarket: 47%)

  • 15%: The probability that Shenna Bellows replaces Platner as the nominee. (Polymarket: 23%)

• 45%: The probability that Democrats win the Maine Senate election. (Polymarket: 63%)

  • 40%: The probability Democrats win the Maine Senate if Troy Jackson is the nominee.

  • 50%: The probability Democrats win the Maine Senate if Shenna Bellows is the nominee.

• 32%: The probability that Democrats win the Senate in the midterms.

  • VICO Ticker: VICORSKB

Michigan/Wisconsin Elections

• 62%: The probability that Abdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. (Polymarket: 80%)

  • The VICO model is more skeptical of El-Sayed’s chances than prediction markets. This is due in large part to Stevens’ financial advantage and establishment support. The model argues that with McMorrow dropping out, the race could go either way.

• 38%: The probability that Francesca Hong wins the Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary. (Kalshi: 50%)

Economics: Inflation, Tech Layoffs, Russian Bond Market

The June inflation report is scheduled to be released next Tuesday. Markets are hoping for a solid inflationary decline in the first report since oil prices dropped. At the same time, Microsoft announced layoffs of over 3,200 Xbox employees, further fueling fears of layoffs among top tech firms. And the Russian bond market is spiking on the back of Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries, threatening the nation’s primary source of revenue. This week:

Inflation

• 78%: The probability that June’s inflation rate is reported to be at least 3.7%. (Kalshi: 64%)

• 58%: The probability that June’s inflation rate is reported to be at least 3.8%. (Kalshi: 22%)

• 28%: The probability that June’s inflation rate is reported to be at least 3.9%. (Kalshi: 5%)

  • Though the VICO model expects inflation to come down from last month’s 4.2%, the model is more bullish on inflation than prediction markets. The model argues that persistent core inflation in healthcare and small business costs may keep inflation elevated above expectations despite declines in energy costs.

Tech Layoffs

• 52%: The probability that another tech company outside of Microsoft’s Xbox division announces layoffs of at least 1,000 employees in the next 60 days.

  • The VICO model points out that many successful companies are employing layoffs to help fund AI spending. While this trend is likely to continue, most top tech firms have already announced layoffs in 2026, which lowers the probability of more large-scale layoffs in the near future.

Russian Bond Market

• 72%: The probability that Russian 10-year yields reach 18% in the next 30 days.

• 15%: The probability that Russian 10-year yields reach 30% in the next 365 days.

  • The VICO model believes that Russian yields are likely to continue increasing, but that a true explosion in yield values is unlikely in the next year.

About Us

• VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.