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What we are following this week:

• Economics: VICO on April Inflation, May Inflation, Federal Gas Tax, Hantavirus

• Domestic Politics: VICO on Virginia Redistricting, Other Redistricting, House Control

• Global Politics: Iran, US x Israel, Russia x Ukraine, Taiwan Arms Deal, US x Cuba

Economics: VICO on April Inflation, May Inflation, Federal Gas Tax, Hantavirus

After the April inflation report showed an increase to 3.8%, we take a look back at the VICO model’s accurate April inflation call, and look forward as economists continue to worry about rapidly accelerating prices. To address some of this inflationary pressure, the President has called to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax until oil prices stabilize. Meanwhile, a Hantavirus scare is prompting fears of another outbreak.

VICO called April Inflation at 3.8%

• In last week’s newsletter, the VICO model put the odds for April inflation to reach at least 3.8% at 92%. On the same day, Polymarket was at just 38%.

  • Since early March, the VICO model has consistently projected elevated odds for inflation to reach 4% in 2026.

• On March 23, the VICO model reached as high as 89%, while Polymarket was at just 46%.

• Even by April 22, Polymarket remained at only 36% before rapidly moving upward in recent weeks toward the VICO position.

Federal Gas Tax

• 38%: The odds for the US to suspend the federal gas tax in the next 30 days.

  • While the President has expressed a desire to suspend the tax, the VICO model highlights Congressional resistance to such a measure.

Hantavirus

• 5%: The odds that the WHO declares the MV Hondius Hantavirus outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next year.

• 18%: The odds for at least 1,000 confirmed Hantavirus deaths to occur in 2026.

Domestic Politics: VICO on Virginia Redistricting, Other Redistricting, House Control

Republicans scored an important pre-midterm victory on Friday when the Virginia Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ redistricting attempt in the state. The case is one of many in the redistricting war being fought by Democrats and Republicans across the country, which is shaping the outlook for the midterms. This week:

VICO called Virginia Redistricting

• In our April 30 newsletter, the VICO model put the odds for the new Virginia map to be struck down at 82.2%.

  • Meanwhile, on April 30th, Polymarket was at 34%.

Other Redistricting

• The following are the odds for each state to successfully redistrict before the midterms:

  • South Carolina: 52%

  • Alabama: 87%

  • Louisiana: 74%

• 23%: The odds for Florida’s new redistricting map to be overturned by the courts before the midterms.

House Control

• 47.2%: The odds for Democrats to win the House in 2026. (Polymarket: 81%)

  • Importantly, the VICO model’s shift downwards on Democrats’ chances to take the House began before the release of the Virginia decision.

    • The VICO model started to decline from 88% on April 29th, and had already reached 56% by the time the Virginia decision was released.

      • I.e. the model knew that Democrat redistricting was unlikely to happen and so it moved the Democrat House odds as a whole.

Global Politics: Iran, US x Israel, Russia x Ukraine, Taiwan Arms Deal, US x Cuba

After US strikes on Iran last week, and American insistence that the ceasefire is still active, President Trump said the ceasefire is “on life support.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told 60 Minutes he wants to phase out US financial support for Israel over the next decade. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine’s Victory Day ceasefire ended, prompting a resumption of attacks. President Trump is being urged to approve an arms deal to Taiwan as he visits President Xi in China. The President also claimed he was “going to have a talk” with Cuban officials. This week:

Iran

• 8%: The odds for Iran to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days.

US x Israel

• 38%: The odds Israel formally requests a reduction in U.S. military aid before the end of 2027.

• 35.5%: The odds for the US to reduce total annual military funding to Israel in the next 2 years.

Russia x Ukraine

• 38%: The odds for Russia to take Pokrovsk in the next 90 days.

Taiwan Arms Deal

• 75%: The odds for the US to approve an arms deal to Taiwan in 2026.

  • The VICO model notes that while a potential agreement to further delay the deal could be reached at the Trump-Xi Summit, bipartisan support for the deal would make a long-term hold politically difficult.

  • For more on what’s at stake in the Trump-Xi Summit, check out last week’s newsletter.

US x Cuba

• 31.2%: The odds for the US to militarily engage Cuba in the next 90 days.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICOTZBK

  • The VICO model argues that the US still prefers the more popular and less costly option of dialogue and internal regime collapse.

• 80%: The odds for the US to have a formal diplomatic meeting with Cuba in the next 180 days.

• 82%: The odds for the US to announce intensified or additional sanctions on Cuba in the next 90 days.

49%: The odds for the Cuban government to fall from power in the next 90 days.

About Us

• VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.