VICO Future Monitor

Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.

What we are following this week:

• Economics: Oil Prices, Recession Odds

• Global Politics: Iran, US x NATO, China x Taiwan, Hungarian Elections

• Domestic Politics: Looking back: VICO Called DHS, DHS Funding, Birthright Citizenship

Economics: Oil Prices, Recession Odds

The S&P 500 rose 3%, and oil prices fell on Tuesday as hopes for a potential end to the Iran war grew. But the small burst of optimism has not extinguished fears of a possible recession in the near future. This week:

Oil Prices: Worst Yet to Come

• 68%: The odds for Brent crude to reach at least $120 in the next 90 days.

• 55%: The odds for Brent crude to reach at least $130 in the next 90 days.

  • The VICO model explains that possible US military action on Kharg Island could restrict oil supply even further, helping to squeeze the price higher in the near term.

Recession Odds: Iran may draw us into a recession

• Last week: 41.8% → Today: 42%: The odds for the US to fall into a recession in the next 90 days.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICOSWME

• Last week: 83% → Today: 92%: The odds for the US to fall into a recession in the next 365 days.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICOUSSN

  • The VICO model cites lowering forecasts from financial institutions, as well as core factors like oil prices and inflation concerns, to justify a forecast increase.

• 40.8% → 56.5%: The odds for a major US bank to fail or require a bailout in 2026.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICONAEG

  • Note: The forecast has now crossed the 50% threshold, mostly in response to economic pressures caused by war in Iran.

Global Politics: Iran, US x NATO, China x Taiwan, Hungarian Elections

After reportedly telling aides that he is willing to end the Iran war without the Strait of Hormuz reopening, President Trump told reporters that the US will leave Iran in “two to three weeks.” The President also called NATO a “paper tiger” and threatened to pull the US out of the organization over allies refusal to help open the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the leader of Taiwan’s opposition party accepted an invitation to meet with President Xi in China. This week: In Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is preparing for an election on April 12 that threatens his 16-year rule.

Iran: Troops on the ground more likely, Pezeshkian Out

• 63%: The odds for US troops to land in Iran to capture nuclear materials in the next 90 days.

  • The VICO model argues that the recent buildup of troops in the region and Pentagon preparations for the possible use of ground troops point towards US troops being used to go after nuclear targets.

• 12%: The odds for the US to withdraw from Iran and stop hostilities in the next 21 days.

  • The VICO model is extremely skeptical of President Trump’s stated two-to-three-week window for a US pullout.

• 87%: The chance that President Masoud Pezeshkian is formally or informally removed from Iran’s military and diplomatic decision-making process in the next 180 days.

  • We have previously forecast that there was an 80% chance that the IRGC would take effective control of the Iranian regime, which seems to have already happened.

  • A call between Pezeshkian and IRGC Chief Ahmad Vahidi is reported to have gone as such:

    • Pezeshkian: “I want to be involved in the negotiations with the U.S. Without a quick deal, our entire economy will collapse in 3 weeks.”

    • Vahidi: “That’s exactly why you can’t be involved. You’ll give up everything for a deal.”

  • Running a VICO If/Then simulation on Pezeshkian’s removal, the model indicates Iran will only become more hostile and less likely to end the war.

US x NATO:

• 3%: The odds the US withdraws from NATO in the next year.

• 32%: The odds the US withdraws from NATO by the end of Trump’s term.

  • The VICO model stresses that President Trump does not have the power to withdraw from NATO without Congressional approval. Given the current lack of Congressional support for leaving NATO, the VICO model is highly skeptical of the President’s threats in the short term, but leaves the door open in the longer term.

China x Taiwan: Iran War Increases the Odds

• 35%: The odds for China to use military force in Taiwan or in Taiwanese waters by the end of 2028.

  • What if the US-Iran war lasts for at least six more months? 35% → 43%

• 22%: The odds for Taiwan’s KMT (opposition party) to win the 2028 presidential election?

  • The VICO model argues that Zheng’s meeting with Xi will likely be unpopular and may hurt the KMT despite solid favorability numbers.

Hungarian Elections: Orban holding on

• 59%: The odds for Viktor Orban to win the 2026 Hungarian election. (Kalshi: 36%)

  • Bloomberg: VICOGZJP

  • The VICO model notes that while polling suggests a strong lead for the opposition party, Orban may interfere in the elections in some way, like declaring a state of emergency over oil prices or foreign influence.

Domestic Politics: Looking back: VICO Called DHS, Birthright Citizenship

Republicans in Congress announced they have again reached a deal to open DHS, likely after Congress returns from recess on April 13th. With a resolution seemingly in sight, we take a look back at the VICO model’s DHS forecasts from the last two months. The Supreme Court will hear arguments from the Trump administration in favor of ending birthright citizenship. This week:

Looking back: VICO Called DHS

• The VICO model has consistently been lower on chances for a DHS funding deal by the end of March than prediction markets.

  • Back in our February 19th newsletter, the VICO model forecasted just a 53% chance for DHS to receive funding by the end of March. On the same day, Kalshi was at 82%.

• More recently, in our March 19th newsletter, the VICO model placed DHS funding by April 10th at a mere 12%. The next day, Polymarket opened at 49% for the shutdown to continue past April 7th, implying 51% odds for a deal to be reached. Those implied odds today are just 6%.

Birthright Citizenship:

• 5%: The odds for the Supreme Court to overturn birthright citizenship in the next two years.

  • The VICO model cited existing case law and publicly communicated reservations from Justices like Brett Kavanaugh.

About Us

• The VICO platform provides a new category of decision-superiority: an AI-powered forecasting, simulation, and scenario-assessment engine that converts qualitative signals—news and expert judgments about real-world events—into standardized, quantitative probabilities and insights.

• VICO empowers decision-makers with measurable insight into what is likely to happen and what could happen, replacing slow, subjective human analysis or capricious prediction markets with continuously updated, model-driven forecasts.

• Our models are rigorously backtested, achieving Brier Scores below 0.15. (Note: Specific Brier Scores and backtesting information can be provided upon request to our customers.)

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.