This Too Shall Not Pass

Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.

What we are following this week:

• Global Politics: US x Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Japan Arms Ban, US x China Summit

• Economics: Tariff Refund Process, CEO Tracker

• Domestic Politics: Alaska Senate Election, Cabinet Tracker

Global Politics: US x Iran, US x China Summit, Japan Arms Ban

President Trump announced on Tuesday that the US would hold off on further strikes on Iran until Iranian officials could come up with a unified proposal to end the war. This happens as the President prepares for a trip to China next month to talk trade policy with Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, Japan lifted its long-held ban on lethal weapons exports, signaling a shift away from post-WW2 pacifism. And finally, we take a look back at the VICO model’s Orban prediction once more. This week:

US x Iran:

• Strikes Not Over Yet

  • Last week: 77% → Today: 93.5%: The odds for the US to strike targets in Iran by May 31.

    • 41%: The US military personnel land ‘boots on the ground’ in Iran for combat or sustained operational purposes in the next 30 days.

  • 3%: The odds for the US and Iran to end the war by May 31. (Polymarket: 38%)

    • The VICO model points to Iran’s refusal to negotiate, combined with active military escalation, including ship seizures, to justify a very low forecast.

    • See here our updated Iran Escalation Index:

• VICO on Iran

  • The VICO model has been consistently skeptical of negotiations and has thus far been vindicated by a persistent divide between the two parties. Last week, our odds for the war to end by May 31 were at 17%. Over the last week, Polymarket’s odds for the same have declined from 76% to 38%.

  • We also predicted in our March 28 Joint Newsletter that there was an 80% chance that Iran would be effectively run by the IRGC in the aftermath. Recent reporting from the New York Times suggests the IRGC in many ways is already doing so.

Strait of Hormuz

• 12.5%: The odds that the US ceases its blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz by May 31.

  • The model argues that any cessation of the blockade is dependent on reaching a broader agreement, which remains highly unlikely.

US x China Summit

• 38%: The odds for China to implement further export controls on rare earths in 2026.

  • China has more export controls set to take effect in November, but the VICO model points to China’s history of using export control threats for leverage during negotiations, before eventually backing down.

• 16%: The odds for the US and China to reach a comprehensive trade deal in the next 90 days.

• 3%: The odds that the US lifts any existing sanctions against China in the next 90 days.

Japan Arms Ban

• 73%: The odds that Japan will reach a deal exceeding $1 billion to sell arms to an ally in the next 365 days.

Economics: Tariff Refund Process, Strait of Hormuz, CEO Tracker

The tariff refund process has officially begun, as the President encourages businesses not to apply. The US continues to block the Strait of Hormuz as negotiations with Iran stall. And finally, we take a look at the odds for top CEO’s to leave by the end of the year. This week:

Tariff Refund Process

• 10%: The odds for more than 50% of eligible businesses to receive full tariff refunds in the next 12 months.

  • The VICO cites the high likelihood of further litigation and the lengthy vetting process.

• 59%: The odds for Section 301 tariffs to be implemented but eventually successfully challenged and struck down in Court.

CEO Tracker

• Tim Cooke is leaving his CEO post. Here are some odds for the following CEOs to be out of their current position by the end of 2026:

  • 71%: Sam Altman (OpenAI)

  • 61%: Elliott Hill (Nike)

  • 44%: Robert Isom (American Airlines)

  • 33.3%: Elon Musk (Tesla)

  • 21%: Kelly Ortberg (Boeing)

  • 18%: Antonio Filosa (Stellantis)

  • 12%: Stephen Hemsley (UnitedHealth Group)

  • 6%: Albert Bourla (Pfizer)

  • 5%: Brian Roberts (Comcast)

  • 2%: Jensen Huang (Nvidia)

Domestic Politics: Alaska Senate Election, Cabinet Tracker

Presumptive Democratic nominee for Senate in Alaska, Mary Peltola, announced she outraised incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan $8.9 Million to $2.1 Million in Q1, a race that will play a large role in determining Senate control. In DC, more top officials left the administration with the exit of Labor Secretary Chavez-DeRemer and the departure of Navy Secretary John Phelan. This week:

Alaska Senate Election

• Last week: 47% → Today: 43%: The odds for Dan Sullivan to win reelection to the Alaska Senate. (Kalshi: 42%)

  • The VICO model argues that Peltola’s record of statewide victory in Alaska, combined with the bad national environment for the GOP, outweighs Sullivan’s incumbent advantage.

• • Sullivan’s odds have been sliding from 60% at the beginning of the month. The drop is mostly the result of a worsening national political outlook for Republicans as the President’s popularity continues to wane.

Cabinet Tracker

• In our April 9th newsletter, we gave Lori Chavez-DeRemer a 75% chance to be out as Secretary of Labor in the next 60 days. Here, we highlight other cabinet members with the highest likelihood of departure.

• 80%: The odds for Howard Lutnick to be out as Secretary of Commerce in the next 60 days.

• 75%: The odds for RFK Jr. to be out as HHS Secretary in the next 60 days.

• 66.5%: The odds for Pete Hegseth to be out as Secretary of War in the next 60 days.

• 48%: The odds for Tulsi Gabbard to be out as Director of National Intelligence in the next 60 days.

• 41%: The odds for Dan Driscoll to be out as Army Secretary in the next 60 days.

About Us

• The VICO platform provides a new category of decision-superiority: an AI-powered forecasting, simulation, and scenario-assessment engine that converts qualitative signals—news and expert judgments about real-world events—into standardized, quantitative probabilities and insights.

• VICO empowers decision-makers with measurable insight into what is likely to happen and what could happen, replacing slow, subjective human analysis or capricious prediction markets with continuously updated, model-driven forecasts.

• Our models are rigorously backtested, achieving Brier Scores below 0.15. (Note: Specific Brier Scores and backtesting information can be provided upon request to our customers.)

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.