(Re)Drawing the Line(s)

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What we are following this week:

• Domestic Politics: Virginia Redistricting, Florida Redistricting, Voting Rights Act

• Global Politics: US x Iran, Oil Prices, OPEC, Israel Elections, USMCA

• Economics: Spirit Airlines, Musk v Altman, Manus x Meta Deal

Domestic Politics: Virginia Redistricting, Florida Redistricting, Voting Rights Act

The Virginia Supreme Court heard oral arguments this week on nullifying the recent redistricting plan. Shortly after, the Florida House retaliated by passing a Republican friendly map designed to pick up four seats. And on Wednesday, the Supreme Court struck down protections for black majority districts in Louisiana’s map, opening the door for further redistricting in other states. This week:

Virginia Redistricting

• 82.2%: The odds for the Virginia Supreme Court to overturn the new redistricting map before the midterms.

  • The VICO model is highly skeptical of the new map’s legal chances, specifically mentioning a lower court’s ruling against the amendment, as well as perceived doubts expressed by the judges during oral arguments.

Florida Redistricting

• Will it be used in the midterms?

  • 23%: The odds for Florida’s highest court to overturn the new map before the midterms.

• How will it change Florida’s delegation?

  • 15%: The odds for Democrats to carry at least 7 seats in the Florida House delegation.

    • 55%: The odds if Florida fails to redistrict.

• Odds for individual members to win reelection

  • 68%: Anna Paulina Luna (R)

    • What if redistricting fails: 75%

  • 48%: Cathy Kastor (D)

    • What if redistricting fails: 73%

  • 14%: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

    • What if redistricting fails: 26%

  • 26%: Darren Soto (D)

    • What if redistricting fails: 71%

  • 46%: Jared Moskowitz (D)

    • What if redistricting fails: 75%

  • While the VICO model makes it clear that redistricting would have a significant negative impact on vulnerable Democrats, interestingly, it also points out that redistricting could involve making some Republican districts slightly more competitive, like Anna Paulina Luna’s.

Voting Rights Act

• With the Supreme Court narrowing the scope of the Voting Rights Act, many Southern states may now redraw their maps to eliminate majority-minority districts that favor Democrats. Here are the odds for the most likely states to successfully redistrict before the midterms.

  • 74%: Alabama

  • 65.7%: Georgia

  • 65%: Louisiana

  • 48%: Tennessee

  • 33.3%: South Carolina

Global Politics: US x Iran, Oil Prices, OPEC, Israel Elections, USMCA

President Trump is reportedly unsatisfied with current peace options in Iran, and told aides to prepare for a drawn-out blockade. In response, Brent crude prices hit their highest mark since 2022. The UAE announced it would be backing out of OPEC, citing concerns over production limits. Also in the Middle East, two former Israeli prime ministers joined forces to take on Netanyahu in the upcoming elections this year. Meanwhile, the USMCA is set to come under formal review, setting the stage for negotiations between the US, Mexico, and Canada.

US x Iran

Looking back at the past few months, VICO has made many calls on the Iran war. Here are the results of a few:

• The US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026. Called at 89% on February 19. Resolved.

• The United States to cease hostilities or Iran to capitulate on key US demands in the next 60 days. Called at 76.5% as of March 5, will resolve as of May 4.

• Iran keeps the Strait effectively closed, and the Navy will not reopen it within the next 15 days. Called at 68% as of March 10. Resolved.

• The odds for the US to resume strikes on Iran after the 14-day temporary ceasefire ends. Called at 79% as of April 9, yet to be resolved, but reports indicate the U.S. is planning to resume strikes.

Now resuming with this week:

• 4.1%: The odds for the US and Iran to have a formal diplomatic meeting in the next 14 days.

  • The VICO model points to the lack of progress at previous meetings and the public denunciation of negotiations by both sides.

• 10%: The odds for the US to escort at least one ship through the Strait of Hormuz in the next 14 days.

  • The VICO model argues that escort missions require a greater Naval presence in the region than currently exists.

Oil Prices

• 63%: The odds for Brent crude to hit $130 per barrel in the next 30 days.

  • Last night Brent crude prices hit $126, resolving a prior forecast from April 2nd, which the model had forecasted at 68% to hit over $120.

OPEC

• 30%: The odds of another nation leaving OPEC in the next 365 days.

  • While OPEC provides geopolitical influence and market stability for its members, the VICO model identifies both Iraq and Kuwait as potential candidates for departure, given their incentives to prioritize individual production over group constraints.

• 19%: The odds for Kuwait to leave OPEC in the next 365 days.

• 15%: The odds for Iraq to leave OPEC in the next 365 days.

Israel Elections

• 34.8%: The odds for Netanyahu to be out as Prime Minister of Israel in the next 365 days.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICONWRQ

USMCA

• 25.5%: The odds for the USMCA to be formally extended before July 1.

  • If the USMCA is not renewed by the July 1st deadline, the deal does not terminate, instead entering a yearly review process. Only after ten years of annual reviews (2036) with no extension agreement would the deal be canceled.

• 13%: The odds for the USMCA to be split into two bilateral trade agreements.

  • The VICO model notes that industry actors are heavily invested in preserving the agreement’s basic structure, and the President has political incentives to pursue the affordability benefits the agreement provides.

• 22%: The odds for the US to reduce or remove tariffs on Mexico or Canada in the next 120 days.

• 77.2%: The odds for the US average tariff rates on North American countries to end the year higher than on January 1, 2026.

  • Current tariff rates are higher than their January baseline, and the VICO model explains its skepticism that a breakthrough in trade negotiations makes tariff reductions unlikely this year.

• • While 77.2% remains high, the forecast has adjusted downward slightly as Canadian officials have stated that the USMCA extension is conditional on tariff relief.

Economics: Spirit Airlines, Musk v Altman, Manus x Meta Deal

The US government is reportedly considering purchasing a stake in Spirit Airlines to keep the company from going under. At the same time, the trial in Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman began on Monday, with Musk accusing Altman of illegally turning OpenAI into a for-profit business. Also, China blocked Meta’s attempted acquisition of Singaporean AI company Manus. This week:

Spirit Airlines

• 69.5%: The odds for the US government to take an equity stake in Spirit Airlines in 2026. (Kalshi: 57%)

  • The Trump administration’s history of purchasing equity in US companies and the President’s desire to save Spirit’s 14,000 jobs both make the acquisition likely, according to the VICO model.

Musk v Altman

• 13%: The odds for Elon Musk to win his case against Sam Altman.

Manus x Meta Deal

• 77%: The odds for the Chinese government to block another AI sector acquisition in the next 365 days.

  • The VICO model argues that the recent decision by the Chinese government signals a shift to enforcing “tech sovereignty,” which the country is likely to continue protecting in the future.

  • What if China and the US reach a comprehensive trade deal? 77% → 72%

    • Potential trade deals have a very limited effect on probability, suggesting that AI competition is mostly independent from trade negotiations.

About Us

• VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.

• Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.