America 250 & the Next 50

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What we are following this week:

• America 250: The Next 50

• Domestic Politics: NYC Rent Freeze, Supreme Court

• Global Politics: Iran

• Economics: Trust Busting, US Buying Tech Equity

America 250: The Next 50

In this special holiday edition of VICO Future Monitor, to celebrate America 250, we’re taking a look at the next fifty years of American progress. From space to AI to Taylor Swift, here’s what we think the next 50 is going to look like:

In the next 50 years…

• Politics

  • 74%: The probability that the US elects a female president.

  • 12%: The probability that the US elects a president who isn’t a Democrat or Republican.

    • The VICO model identifies the most probable routes as a well-funded populist third-party candidate or the adoption of ranked-choice voting, though both are unlikely

  • 1%: The probability that Mount Rushmore gets a fifth face.

    • The VICO model is highly skeptical of a dominant political consensus around a single individual in the next 50 years.

  • 35%: The probability that the US loses a city to rising sea levels.

  • 28%: The probability that the Supreme Court is expanded.

  • 5%: The probability that a state secedes.

  • 8%: The probability that the US adds a new state.

• Health

  • 27%: The probability that a cure for cancer is found.

  • 30%: The probability that US life expectancy reaches 80 years.

  • 8%: The probability that someone lives to 130 years.

• Space:

  • 22%: The probability for the US to establish a base on Mars.

  • 8%: The probability that the US government confirms extraterrestrial life exists.

    • The VICO model assigns low odds to convincing evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence being collected in this timeframe. Within that context, it identifies the risk of China or Russia disclosing their own such evidence first as one of the most plausible scenarios for the US government to confirm the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence.

  • 2%: The probability of first contact between extraterrestrial intelligence and humans.

  • 75%: The probability that Elon Musk himself goes to space.

• AI

  • 9%: The probability that an AI is elected to public office in the US.

    • The VICO model sees a possible future ban on AI candidacy as public opposition to AI governance is unlikely to change. However, the model leaves a plausible scenario in which approval of human governance gets so low that voters turn to artificial intelligence.

  • 18%: The probability that someone legally marries an AI.

  • 70%: The probability that an AI wins a major literary, film, or music award.

• Research/innovation

  • 72%: The probability that at least 50% of US energy is renewable.

    • The VICO model is high on the long-term adoption of high-capacity batteries, which would enable us to store large amounts of renewable energy.

  • 62%: The probability that a nuclear fusion power plant comes online in the US.

  • 22%: The probability that the US builds high-speed rail.

  • 71%: The probability that supersonic commercial flight returns.

  • 18%: The probability that a commercially available brain-chip implant exists.

  • 8%: The probability that lab-grown meat outsells natural meat.

  • 21%: The probability that the average American workweek drops to 4 days.

• Global

  • 72%: The probability that world poverty drops below 5%.

  • 65%: The probability that Earth’s population reaches 10 billion.

• Entertainment

  • 73%: The probability that the US wins the World Cup.

  • 2%: The probability that Taylor Swift becomes a Nobel Laureate.

Domestic Politics: NYC Rent Freeze, Supreme Court

The New York City Rent Board passed a rent freeze by a vote of 7-1 last week. The policy is a win for Mayor Mamdani, who campaigned on the promise of a freeze, but critics argue it will reduce housing supply. In DC, the Supreme Court handed down a number of high-profile cases, including the upholding of birthright citizenship. This week:

We Called it: NYC Rent Freeze

• Since January, the VICO model has been high on Mayor Mamdani freezing rent in 2026. Our forecast reached 94% in late February, and since May 13 had been at or above 90%.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICOASRT

• Meanwhile, both Polymarket and Kalshi were lower during the same period, with Polymarket coming in much lower because of minutiae in the resolution criteria.

• The Kalshi market has already resolved to yes, while Polymarket now sits at 94%.

  • The VICO model got there first, with a high-confidence forecast as early as January.

• 61%: The probability that Housing growth rates slow in NYC in the next two years.

• 6%: The probability that Housing supply decreases in NYC in the next two years.

Supreme Court

• In our April 2nd newsletter, we put the odds of birthright citizenship being overturned at just 5%. That forecast just resolved to a no after the Court released its decision.

• 80%: the probability that the Supreme Court rules state-level assault weapons bans unconstitutional in the next year.

  • The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case on assault weapons bans in the next session, and the model believes the Court’s conservative majority is likely to side with the plaintiff to expand 2nd Amendment rights.

Global Politics: Iran

The US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, but have since renewed talks for a ceasefire. Vice President Vance attended a meeting with Iranian negotiators in Doha in search of an agreement. This week:

Iran

• 67%: The probability that the current MOU collapses and results in strikes between the US and Iran.

  • The model’s odds for a collapse rose slightly after the weekend strikes, but did not resolve as negotiations under the MOU are ongoing. However, the strikes clearly illustrate the delicate nature of the situation.

• 28%: The probability that the MOU results in neither strikes nor a ceasefire, and a peaceful stalemate ensues.

• 5%: The probability that the MOU results in a permanent ceasefire

  • 91%: The probability that Israel strikes Iran in the next 60 days.

  • 12%: The probability that Iran gains access to a majority of the $300 billion laid out in the MOU in the next five years.

Economics: Trust Busting, US Buying Tech Equity

AOC called for the breakup of large tech companies in response to Apple’s announcement that it would be increasing prices on some phones and tablets. Meanwhile, OpenAI is reportedly proposing giving a 5% stake to the Trump administration, while markets try to predict which company the US government will take a stake in next. This week:

Trust Busting

• 7%: The probability that the federal government successfully breaks up Apple in the next 2 years.

  • 12% probability for a breakup in the next 4 years.

  • We are calling this story mostly noise as the political reality necessary to successfully break up a tech giant like Apple is unlikely to materialize in the next few years.

US Buying Tech Equity

• 72%: The probability that the US government takes a stake in GlobalFoundries before 2028.

About Us

• VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.