See You In November

Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.

What we are following this week:

• Domestic Politics: Tuesday Primaries, Maine Senate Race, ICE Funding

• Special Section: Next Director of National Intelligence

• Global Politics: VICO on Iran, Israel x Hezbollah, Global Elections

• Economics: May Jobs/Inflation, Oil, OpenAI Suit, South Korean Stock Exchange

Domestic Politics: Tuesday Primaries, Maine Senate Race, ICE Funding

Tuesday night’s primaries provided us with a better picture of certain key races set for November. Despite not having a primary on Tuesday, Maine’s Senate race is back in the news as Graham Platner undergoes another scandal, this time around alleged infidelity. On the Hill, the death of the anti-weaponization fund may open doors for Republicans to push through long-term funding for ICE and Border Patrol. This week:

After Tuesday’s Primaries - The Probability of Winning the General Election in November:

• California Governor (Primary not yet called)

  • 64%: Xavier Becerra (D)

  • 28%: Tom Steyer (D)

  • 8%: Steve Hilton (R)

• LA Mayor (Primary not yet called)

  • 57%: Karen Bass (D)

  • 31%: Spencer Pratt (I)

  • 8%: Nithya Raman (D)

• Iowa Senate

  • 54%: Ashley Hinson (R)

  • 46%: Josh Turek (D)

• Iowa Governor

  • 55%: Zach Lahn (R)

  • 45%: Rob Sand (D)

• Iowa’s 1st District

  • 69%: Christina Bohannan (D)

  • 31%: Miller-Meeks (R)

• New Jersey’s 9th District

  • 77%: Nellie Pou (D)

  • 23%: Rosie Pino (R)

• California’s 22nd District

  • 63%: Randy Villegas (D)

  • 37%: David Valadao (R)

Maine Senate Race

• 15.0%: The odds for Graham Platner to win the Maine Senate Election. (Kalshi: 53%)

  • The VICO model continues to rate Platner very low, citing his tough matchup against a seasoned incumbent in Collins and his mounting personal scandals, which have pushed his odds even lower.

ICE Funding

• VICO called the death of the Anti-weaponization fund in last week’s newsletter, citing a probability of just 5% that the fund would fulfill its obligations.

  • This week, acting AG Todd Blanche testified that the administration has abandoned its original plans for the compensation fund.

• 72%: The probability of Congress funding ICE and Border Patrol through the end of Trump’s term in the next 30 days.

  • The reconciliation plans for ICE and Border Patrol had been held up by the Anti-weaponization fund, but the VICO model argues that the bill is now likely to pass.

Special Section: Next Director of National Intelligence

Senate Republicans are less than thrilled with the announcement of Trump Director of US Federal Housing Bill Pulte as Director of National Intelligence. Opposition in Congress has raised questions about who is likely to take over the position permanently once Pulte’s interim period ends.

• 17%: Rick Crawford (Kalshi: 5%)

• 12%: Tom Cotton (Kalshi: 3.9%)

• 11%: John Ratcliffe (Kalshi: 3%)

• 10%: Devin Nunes (Kalshi: 5.3%)

• 9%: Bill Pulte (Kalshi: 12%)

• 8%: Elise Stefanik (Kalshi: 9%)

• 5%: Richard Grenell (Kalshi: 2%)

• 4%: Aaron Lukas (Kalshi: 17%)

• 3%: Michael Ellis (Kalshi: 4.8%)

• 2%: Stephen Miller (Kalshi: 0.8%)

While the VICO model remains conservative on any individual’s chances, it interestingly gave Rick Crawford the best chance at being the next DNI. Crawford is the current Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. The VICO model explains that Crawford has the loyalist credentials Trump is looking for, but also the intelligence experience demanded by Senate Republicans, making him a promising compromise candidate.

Global Politics: VICO on Iran, Israel x Hezbollah, Global Elections

The US again struck Iran as President Trump insists negotiations are ongoing, despite Iranian officials reporting the opposite. Interfering with these negotiations is the ongoing Israeli campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah, which reportedly prompted President Trump to shout down Prime Minister Netanyahu on a private phone call. And as important summer elections come into focus around the world, we take a look at some of the most interesting set to happen in the next few months. This week:

VICO on Iran

• In our last week’s newsletter, the VICO model put the odds for a permanent US-Iran ceasefire by the end of June at just 6%, compared to Polymarket’s 45%. After more strikes earlier this week, that number is down to just 23% on Polymarket.

• The VICO model’s analysis of the underlying facts has remained consistent and correct throughout the conflict. Prediction markets, on the other hand, have been continually swayed by smoke and mirrors from public statements and news stories.

  • One visible example of this is Polymarket’s spike on May 23rd. This followed an announcement by President Trump that a deal had been “largely negotiated” and that the Strait would reopen soon. This single statement shot ceasefire odds from 34% to 76% in one day.

  • Meanwhile, the VICO model’s structural analysis remained unchanged. Take a look at our Iran escalation index for proof:

• We believe part of the promise of the VICO model is to serve as a check on news momentum. In this case, a trader who consulted the VICO model on May 23rd would have seen that structural negotiating factors remained unchanged, despite eye-catching public statements and widespread market anticipation.

• Oil prices have also tracked news stories, as just today crude oil is down more than 3% on a report that the President is “reluctant” to resume full-scale attacks. This kind of market speculation has created extremely volatile oil prices, even though they continue to hover around a mean of roughly $95.

Iran

• 4%: The probability of the US and Iran reaching a formal deal concerning Iranian nuclear capabilities in the next 60 days.

• 2%: The probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent ceasefire deal by June 30. (Polymarket: 23%)

• 26%: The probability of Iran partially unblocking the Strait of Hormuz in the next 30 days.

Israel x Hezbollah

• 82%: The probability of Israel striking Beirut in the next 30 days.

• 2%: The probability of Israel officially halting its campaign against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon in the next 60 days.

  • The VICO model argues that the US-backed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire that was negotiated on Wednesday shows the difficulty of achieving a ceasefire, as Hezbollah was not a party in the negotiations and rejected the terms within a matter of hours.

Global Elections

• Colombia

  • 78%: Abelardo De Espriella wins the Colombian Presidential election.

• Brazil

  • 56%: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the Brazilian Presidential election.

  • 32%: Flavio Bolsonaro wins the Brazilian Presidential election.

• Germany

  • 45%: Friedrich Merz ceases to be German Chancellor in 2026.

• United Kingdom

  • 71%: Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election.

Economics: May Jobs/Inflation, Oil, OpenAI Suit, South Korean Stock Exchange

Last month, the VICO model accurately called inflation ahead of prediction markets. With the May jobs/inflation figures set to be released, VICO provides insight into what to expect. Impacting those inflation numbers are oil prices, which increased earlier this week on the back of proclamations from Iranian officials that the Strait will remain closed indefinitely. Meanwhile, the State of Florida is suing OpenAI over safety lapses, and we forecast the South Korean stock exchange after it surpassed India for the 6th largest market in the world. This week:

May Jobs/Inflation

• 85%: The probability of inflation hitting 4.3% or higher in May (91% for 4.2% or higher and 95% for 4.1% or higher). (Polymarket: 51%)

• 38%: the odds for the US to add at least 100,000 jobs in May. (Polymarket: 58%)

Oil

• In last week’s newsletter, the VICO model remained low on the odds for a permanent ceasefire deal with Iran at 6%. At the same time, oil prices were falling on the back of market hopes for an agreement.

  • A trader who bought oil on the day our newsletter was released would have seen substantial growth in the last week and would still have over a 4% profit even after today’s oil price dip.

• 54%: The odds for crude oil to reach at least $105 in the next two weeks.

• 18%: The odds for crude oil futures to drop below $85 by June 30.

OpenAI Suit

• 12%: The odds for the State of Florida to win its lawsuit or reach a settlement in excess of $500 million in the next two years.

South Korean Stock Exchange

• The South Korean exchange has more than doubled in 2026 alone, and Goldman Sachs recently upped its target for KOSPI (South Korean index) to 12,000.

  • 14%: The odds KOSPI reaches at least 12,000 (currently 8,800) in 2026.

  • 28%: The odds KOSPI reaches at least 12,000 in the next 12 months.

About Us

• VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.