VICO Future Monitor

Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.

What we are following this week:

• Global Politics: US x Iran, Hungary

• Domestic Politics: California Gubernatorial Election, Trump x Pope Leo XIV

• Economics: Strait of Hormuz x Inflation

• Spotlight: Semiconductors

Global Politics: US x Iran, Hungary

Negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed over the weekend. But talks could renew as soon as the end of this week. Both sides will again try to find a permanent agreement to end the conflict. Elsewhere, Viktor Orbán lost his reelection campaign for Prime Minister of Hungary, replaced by a more EU-friendly Péter Magyar. This week:

US x Iran:

• More Conflict Remains Likely

  • 77%: The odds for the US to strike targets in Iran by May 31.

  • 17%: The odds for the US and Iran to end the war by May 31.

    • The VICO model continues to emphasize the gulf between core demands on both sides, like lifting of sanctions, transfer of nuclear materials, and the Strait of Hormuz.

    • See here an update on our Iran Escalation Index, which was first shown in our March 26 newsletter. Although the ceasefire caused a clear dip, tensions have been growing since.

• Ceasefire conditions? (Continued from last week)

  • 8%: The odds for the US to obtain enriched uranium from Iran by May 31. (Polymarket: 22%)

  • 11.5%: The odds for the US to lift any sanctions on Iran in the next 90 days.

  • 62%: The odds for Iran to impose an effective toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the year.

Hungary

• On the Election Results

  • We do an after-action report on every forecast. In the case of Hungary’s election, the VICO model was close to a 50/50 view but was somewhat more bullish on Orbán winning due to two specific factors, until a couple of days out from the election.

• • • The first of those factors was incumbency. Our models rely not just on present factors like polling but on historical results and indicators. The model gave Orbán a distinct advantage because of his incumbency even in the face of subpar polling.

    • Secondly, the model believed Orbán might declare an emergency. This would allow him to postpone the election and thus push it past the forecast window. However, as the election came closer, the model viewed such a postponement as less likely.

  • The amazing thing about AI models is that they can learn like people do and our VICO model is learning from this situation.

• 81%: The odds for the EU to pass formerly vetoed financial aid to Ukraine in the next 180 days.

  • Orbán had previously vetoed a €90 Billion financial aid proposal. The VICO model expects the new Prime Minister Magyar to lift the veto.

Domestic Politics: California Gubernatorial Election, Trump x Pope Leo XIV

After a series of allegations of sexual assault and harassment, Representative Eric Swalwell has resigned and dropped out of the California Governor’s race. The sudden change has upended a still crowded race. Meanwhile, President Trump’s spat with the Pope has deepened GOP concerns for the midterms, particularly with Catholic voters who split 55% in favor of the President in 2024. This week:

California Gubernatorial Election: Steyer Rises, Rs Fall

• Last week: 41% → Today: 31%: The odds for two Republicans to advance to the runoff election

  • The VICO model argued that Swalwell’s departure from the race will help Democrats to consolidate behind other candidates, reducing the odds of vote splitting moving forward.

• 30% → 47%: The odds for Tom Steyer to win the California Gubernatorial election. (Kalshi: 65%)

• 14.5% → 13%: The odds for Katie Porter to win the California Gubernatorial election. (Kalshi: 11%)

• 20% → 15.5%: The odds for Steve Hilton to win the California Gubernatorial election. (Kalshi: 6%)

• 10%: The odds for Matt Mahan to win the California Gubernatorial election. (Kalshi: 11%)

  • The VICO model’s adjustments after Swalwell dropped out provide two clear takeaways. First, Republican chances dropped as votes were split among fewer Democratic candidates. Second, Steyer stands to benefit the most and has now become the frontrunner. However, the VICO model remains less bullish on Steyer than prediction markets, suggesting a greater degree of uncertainty than markets currently show.

Trump x Pope Leo XIV: GOP in Trouble

• 58%: The odds for Democrats to win the Catholic vote in the 2026 midterms.

  • The VICO model stressed structural factors along with the President’s recent comments, which have moved the model up 5% from a week ago.

• 61%: The odds for Democrats to take the Senate in 2026.

Economics: Strait of Hormuz x Inflation

President Trump announced the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran stalled. In response, the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecasts amidst raised inflation expectations. This week:

Strait of Hormuz x Inflation: Blockade to Drag Out, Inflation to Worsen

• 10%: The odds for the US to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 30. (Polymarket: 81%)

  • The VICO model is extremely skeptical of the US backing down from its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, citing the persisting impasse in negotiations between both sides.

• 68%: The odds for the US inflation rate to reach at least 4% in 2026

  • What if the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts until at least June 30?

    • 68% → 95%

• 37.5%: The odds for the US inflation rate to reach at least 5.5% in 2026

  • What if the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts until at least June 30?

    • 37.5% → 62%

    • The VICO model argues that an extended blockade is likely to have a significant impact on inflation rates.

Spotlight: Semiconductors

Seeing the impact of the blockade on the global economy, we examined the outlook for the semiconductor industry, with and without the war continuing for the next 6 months. To do so, we ran forecasts on the largest semiconductor stocks to see if their stock prices were likely to improve year over year. Here are the results:

About Us

• The VICO platform provides a new category of decision-superiority: an AI-powered forecasting, simulation, and scenario-assessment engine that converts qualitative signals—news and expert judgments about real-world events—into standardized, quantitative probabilities and insights.

• VICO empowers decision-makers with measurable insight into what is likely to happen and what could happen, replacing slow, subjective human analysis or capricious prediction markets with continuously updated, model-driven forecasts.

• Our models are rigorously backtested, achieving Brier Scores below 0.15. (Note: Specific Brier Scores and backtesting information can be provided upon request to our customers.)

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.