Deal or No Deal?

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What we are following this week:

• Global Politics: Iran, Russia x Ukraine, Cuba, Alberta Canada

• Special Section: US Territorial Expansion

• Domestic Politics: Anti-Weaponization Fund, Next DNI, Green Card Ruling, Texas Senate Race, Federal NDAs, Alabama Redistricting

• Economics: Oil, Weapons-Grade Plutonium, AI x Papacy, Russia x China Pipeline

Global Politics: Iran, Russia x Ukraine, Cuba, Alberta Canada

The VICO model again drastically outperformed prediction markets on US strikes in Iran, as a deal to extend the temporary ceasefire and reopen the Strait reportedly awaits Trump’s approval. The VICO model also accurately called new Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities, as Secretary Rubio has been warned to evacuate American citizens from Kyiv. In other news, the Cuban Foreign Minister accused Secretary Rubio of lying to “instigate a military aggression.” And Canadian Prime Minister Carney warned Alberta residents against a secession from Canada. This week:

VICO on Iran

• We called the strikes again. In last week’s newsletter, the VICO model put the odds of more US strikes on Iran in the next month at 93%.

  • On the same day our newsletter released, Polymarket’s odds for the US-Iran ceasefire to last until June 30th stood at 50%. That market resolved to no following the strikes.

• From the outset of the conflict, the VICO model has been highly skeptical of a quick resolution, even in the face of analyst expectations for a short conflict (Notable examples here and here).

  • While prediction markets continue to be sucked in by news stories of negotiation progress, the VICO model has stuck to its guns and been vindicated repeatedly.

Iran Deal?

• 6% probability for the US and Iran to reach a permanent ceasefire deal by June 30. (Polymarket: 45%)

  • Note: This forecast is exclusive to a permanent ceasefire. The extension of the current temporary ceasefire does not resolve this forecast.

  • 7%: probability of the US and Iran reaching a deal concerning Iranian nuclear capabilities in the next 60 days.

    • 9% probability for the US or any other country to secure fissile material from Iran as part of any interim arrangement before the end of 2026.

    • 13%: probability Iran and at least one foreign government or international organization reach an agreement establishing a verifiable limit on Iranian uranium enrichment in the next 90 days.

• 14% probability for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords in the next year.

Russia x Ukraine

• VICO called it in Ukraine. In last week’s newsletter, the VICO model gave a 72% chance for the Russian military to significantly intensify strikes on major Ukrainian cities in the next 30 days.

  • This week, the Russian military launched one of the war’s largest attacks on Kyiv.

• Last week: 41% → 39%: The odds for Russia to take Pokrovsk in the next 90 days.

  • Importantly, the increased odds for strikes on Ukrainian cities have not meaningfully affected Russia’s odds of achieving important territorial gains like capturing Pokrovsk.

Cuba

• 62% → 81%: The odds for the current Cuban government to collapse or undergo a regime transition before December 31, 2026.

• 30% → 45%: The odds for a US-Cuba direct military engagement in the next 90 days.

  • Ticker: VICOTZBK

Alberta Canada

• 12% probability for Alberta to successfully pass a referendum to leave Canada in the next 5 years.

• 4% probability for Alberta to successfully secede from Canada in the next 5 years.

  • The VICO model makes an important distinction between a referendum and actually seceding, arguing that a vote may not necessarily lead to separation.

Special Section: US Territorial Expansion

As American geopolitical engagement deepens globally, speculation surrounding future American interventions and territorial ambitions has intensified. VICO forecasts the probability that countries and territories will become a 51st state or a US protectorate over the next 5 years.

• Venezuela: 5% probability.

• Alberta: 1% probability.

• Greenland: 6% probability.

• Cuba: 12% probability.

• Nicaragua: 3% probability.

The forecasts show that 51st state rhetoric is essentially all noise, with little backing in actual probability.

Domestic Politics: Anti-Weaponization Fund, Next DNI, Federal NDAs, Green Card Ruling, Texas Senate Race, Alabama Redistricting

Legal and political challenges intensified this week against several Trump administration initiatives, including lawsuits targeting the proposed $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund and growing scrutiny over new federal NDA policies and immigration rules. Tulsi Gabbard is resigning as DNI on June 30. We take a look at her possible replacements. In election news, Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary in Texas, where he will face James Talarico in the general. And a Federal Court struck down Alabama’s attempt to redistrict, which is now being appealed to the Supreme Court. This week:

Trump’s $1.8 Anti-Weaponization Fund:

• 5% probability for Trump's $1.8 billion payout fund to remain solvent and fulfill its obligations before the end of the year.

  • The VICO model is leaning into a counter-consensus view.

Next Director of National Intelligence?

• 64%: Aaron Lukas (Kalshi: 36%)

• 18%: Elise Stefanik (Kalshi: 11%)

• 11%: Devin Nunes (Kalshi: 8%)

Green Card Ruling:

• 82% probability that a federal court blocks enforcement of the Trump administration's requirement that most green card applicants leave the United States to complete processing abroad before the end of the year.

Federal NDAs:

• 12% probability for the US government to require all Federal employees to sign an NDA in 2026?

  • 82% probability for the US government to formally require at least one category of federal executive branch employees to sign new or expanded NDAs before October 1, 2026?

Texas Senate Race

• 46.5% probability for Ken Paxton to win the 2026 Texas Senate Election. (Kalshi: 56%)

  • Ticker: VICONTHW

    • The VICO model cites polling data, Talarico’s fundraising lead, and Paxton’s former scandals to argue that Talarico is actually the slight favorite even in Texas.

• 51% → 56% probability for Democrats to win the Senate in 2026.

  • Ticker: VICORSKB

    • With confirmation of Paxton’s victory in the Texas Senate Primary, the forecast has moved slightly in the last week, as the VICO model explains that Paxton makes the race more competitive. The VICO model was already high on Paxton’s odds ever since he received President Trump’s endorsement, and therefore his victory was mostly already priced in to the Senate forecast.

Alabama Redistricting

• 27% probability that Alabama enacts a new Congressional districting map before the 2026 midterms.

Economics: Weapons-Grade Plutonium, AI x Papacy, Russia x China Pipeline

The Department of Energy is considering a deal to provide nuclear fuel to private companies with weapons-grade plutonium from old Soviet warheads. In other news, the Pope released an encyclical calling for AI development to serve human interests and warned against power concentration in the tech sector. And Putin-Xi talks have revived plans for the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to feed oil from Russia to China. This week:

Weapons-Grade Plutonium

• 68% probability the United States Department of Energy finalizes a new agreement with five selected private startups to access surplus plutonium from Cold War-era warheads before the end of the year.

AI x Papacy

• 74% probability Anthropic specifically cites papal recommendations in revisions to its AI Constitution before the end of the year.

Russia x China Pipeline

• 22% probability for Russia and China to begin construction on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline in the next two years.

  • The VICO model argues that the pricing disagreement between Russia and China is unlikely to be resolved and will thus probably stall the project for the foreseeable future.

About Us

• VICO empowers decision makers to quantify and navigate event risk. Forecast, simulate and monitor political, geopolitical and economic events.

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.