VICO FUTURE MONITOR · NEWSLETTER
Tightening the Screws
We Called It: US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, UK Taxes, Canada Tariffs, US Nuclear Shipping, Anthropic IPO, Supreme Court Mail-In Ballots, H-1B Visa Fee, Alaska Senate Race
This issue was published in the VICO Future Monitor newsletter and is archived here; edits and forecast links were added by the VICO editorial team.
Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.
What we are following this week:
Global Politics: We Called It: US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, UK Taxes
Economics: Canada Tariffs, US Nuclear Shipping, Anthropic IPO
Domestic Politics: Supreme Court Mail-In Ballots, H-1B Visa Fee, Alaska Senate Race
Global Politics: We Called It: US x Iran, Russia x Ukraine, UK Taxes
We Called It: Economic Squeeze on Iran
On Monday, the Trump administration unveiled “economic D-Day,” a collection of new sanctions designed to further economically isolate Iran.
VICO called the shift two weeks ago:
In our August 13th newsletter, the VICO model put new sanctions on Iran in the next 30 days at 82%.
The VICO model gave a 12% chance the US lifts the blockade of Iranian ports by the end of August versus Polymarket at 35%.
Attention is shifting to what the new sanctions mean for Iran. The VICO model thinks the pressure will continue, but the regime will survive, for now.
But the VICO forecast on Iran losing control of the Strait is increasing.
27% The probability that Iran loses control of the Strait of Hormuz. Up from just 12% a week ago. (Ticker: VICOOUQN)
On the whole, don’t expect oil prices to return to normal soon unless Iran loses control of the Strait, which remains an unlikely but growing possibility.
Russia x Ukraine - Ratcliffe’s Secret Meeting?
On Tuesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow, which later reports indicated concerned a warning to Russia to not attack a NATO country.
The VICO forecast for covert action by Russia on a NATO member in 2026 sits at 49% and was unmoved by the meeting.
While the possibility of an overt military strike remains low at 6%
Meanwhile, on Ukraine, the model is bearish, believing the war will go on:
3% The probability that Russia formally relinquishes at least some territorial claims in Ukraine in the next 6 months.
90%: The probability that Ukraine strikes more Russian retail or logistics infrastructure in the next 14 days.
82%: The probability that Russia launches a large-scale retaliatory strike on Ukrainian cities or energy infrastructure in the next 14 days.
Overall, the probability of a ceasefire in 2026 is just 19%. Versus Polymarket at 24%. (Ticker: VICOBIZK)
UK Taxes
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham explicitly refused to rule out tax increases under his government. VICO expects them, but targeted away from workers.
The burden instead points toward capital, with capital gains the likeliest target.
45%: The probability that the budget raises capital gains tax.
But according to the VICO Scenario Explorer, a large capital gains hike risks the capital flight that erodes the revenue it raises. If capital gains rises 5 points:
85%: The probability that high-growth UK tech scale-ups abandon plans to list in London, choosing US exchanges like NASDAQ or the NYSE.
49%: The probability that high-net-worth investors defer sales and move into offshore trusts, forcing the UK Treasury to cut its medium-term fiscal outlook by 0.3% of GDP.
Taken together, a tax rise is a high likelihood, but the exact means is up in the air. Taxing capital is the most likely of the options, but it risks economic fallout.
Economics: Canada Tariffs, US Nuclear Shipping, Anthropic IPO
Canada Tariffs
Over the weekend, negotiations collapsed between the US and Canada to avoid the imposition of 50% tariffs on a collection of Canadian goods.
A deal to unwind the tariffs looks unlikely, and the fight is hardening into something structural.
The restraint is energy, where US dependence caps how far Washington will go.
22%: The probability that the US imposes new tariffs on Canadian crude or energy products in 2026.
Either way, Canada bears the brunt of the economic risk:
Canada
United States
US Nuclear Shipping
On August 25, the US Maritime Administration signed a non-binding cooperation memo to explore US-flagged nuclear-powered merchant ships as a way to close the gap with China. The VICO model sees it as an aspiration rather than reality.
38%: The probability that a functioning US-flagged nuclear-powered cargo prototype is operating before 2035.
The deal depends on funding and a regulatory framework, both of which are unlikely in the next few years.
22%: The probability that a licensing framework for commercial nuclear-powered merchant ships is established before 2029.
According to VICO, the deal is an investigation into what could be down the road, not a commitment to nuclear cargo.
Anthropic IPO
Anthropic is reportedly expected to tell investors it sees more than $30 trillion in potential revenue. Buzz is rising about Anthropic’s possible IPO this year.
The VICO model expects the IPO before markets do.
82%: The probability that Anthropic completes its IPO by October 15, 2026. Versus Polymarket at 56%.
However, the model is less bullish on the opening day valuation than prediction markets.
28%: The probability that Anthropic’s closing IPO day valuation exceeds $2.25 trillion. Versus Polymarket at 49%.
Ultimately, the model is bullish on the date, but bearish on the valuation relative to markets.
Domestic Politics: Supreme Court Mail-In Ballots, H-1B VISA Fee, Alaska Senate Race
Supreme Court Mail-In Ballots
This week both injunctions on the president’s mail-in ballot executive order were lifted. But the VICO model notes that many hurdles remain if the order is to be enforced on election day.
The VICO Causal Explorer identifies factors that impact whether or not the order can be enforced on election day for the midterms.
Importantly, the gate is not just the courts. The order also depends on USPS operational readiness, and combatting state-level non-compliance.
The VICO model highlights that such a dramatic change so close to an election makes its enforcement unlikely, even if the courts decline to enjoin the order.
18%: The probability that the president’s EO on mail-in ballot rules is fully enforced during the 2026 midterms.
In the long term, the model is less certain about the constitutional future of the mail-in ballot rules.
48%: The probability that the Supreme Court upholds the order's central provision (USPS refusing mail ballots from non-compliant states) by July 31, 2028.
So while the order is unlikely to take place for this year’s midterm elections, the VICO model argues that the order’s future is a toss-up.
H-1B Visa Fee
DHS has proposed a new $103,000 fee on H-1B visas entering the United States after a previous attempt has been stifled in federal court.
For now, the new rule is just a proposal, but the VICO model gives a greater than 50% chance for it to be formally adopted.
58%: The probability that DHS formally finalizes a rule to charge $103,000 on H-1B visas by June 30, 2027.
The higher barrier is the courts, where the model is not optimistic about the proposal’s chances of being upheld.
15%: The probability that the Supreme Court upholds the constitutionality of the proposed H-1B visa fee in the next 3 years.
The VICO model argues that the court’s conservative majority is likely to have questions about possible agency overreach by unilaterally creating a separate revenue stream for the government.
The Supreme Court is the main barrier, and one the model believes the proposal is unlikely to clear.
Alaska Senate Race
On Tuesday, Alaska held its unique primary for Senate, in which all candidates (regardless of party) compete and the top four advance to the general election.
In what some Republicans believe could be a spoiler, a candidate with the same name as the incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan advanced to the general election after receiving 2.5% of the primary vote.
48%: The probability that the other Dan Sullivan reaches at least 3% of the vote in the general election.
More problematically for Republicans, Mary Peltola (D) led the primary with 47.8% of the vote, to Sullivan’s 43.3%.
25%: The probability that Dan Sullivan (R) wins the Alaska Senate election. Versus Kalshi at 41%. (VICO Ticker: VICOMJSE)
The VICO model has been low on Sullivan’s chances for months, so Tuesday’s results did little to move the forecast.
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Methodology and Copyright Notes:
All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.
Our proprietary AI models are rigorously backtested and do not rely on any betting market information.
All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.