VICO Future Monitor

Access VICO forecasts or make your own at www.vico.io as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal at WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECTION<GO> and WSL VICO<GO>.

What we are following this week:

• Global Politics: US x Iran

• Domestic Politics: Next Attorney General, Maine Senate, Supreme Court Vacancy

• Spotlight: Cabinet Departures,

• Economics: Job Growth, Inflation

Global Politics: US x Iran

President Trump agreed to postpone attacks on Iran for two weeks, while terms of a permanent ceasefire are negotiated. The deal could mark the end of the US-Iran war, which has been raging for over a month. This week:

US x Iran: The VICO Model Thinks We Are Going Back to War

• The Wars end? Unlikely.

  • 22%: The odds for the ceasefire deal to effectively hold for the agreed-upon 14-day period.

    • The VICO model is broadly skeptical of the feasibility of the proposed ceasefire terms, given the maximalist nature of many of Iran’s demands.

  • 79%: The odds for the US to resume strikes on Iran after the 14-day temporary ceasefire ends.

    • The VICO model believes that both the ceasefire is likely to last its full term, and that reaching an agreement is unlikely given the short time period and distance between both sides in negotiations. The VICO model also points to President Trump’s statements that the US is prepared to immediately resume strikes in the event of negotiation failure.

• Ceasefire conditions?

  • 29%: The odds for the US to obtain enriched uranium from Iran by May 31. (Polymarket: 20%)

  • 16%: The odds for the US to lift any sanctions on Iran in the next 90 days.

  • 42.0%: The odds for Iran to impose an effective toll on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for at least 30 consecutive days by the end of the year.

Next Attorney General, Supreme Court Vacancy, Maine Senate

The search for the next Attorney General is on after President Trump fired Pam Bondi last week. At the same time, a report outlining a health scare for Supreme Court Justice Alito has raised the possibility of the President appointing another Justice in the near term. Finally, we take a look at the Maine Senate race, where Graham Platner is pulling ahead in recent primary polling. This week:

Next Attorney General:

• 68%: The odds for Lee Zeldin to be the next Attorney General. (Kalshi: 36%)

• 25%: The odds for Todd Blanche to be the next Attorney General. (Kalshi: 32%)

  • The VICO model argues that Zeldin is the clear favorite given his close relation to the President. In addition, the VICO model emphasized possible hurdles Blanche could face in the Senate, making a Zeldin nomination comparatively less politically dangerous for the administration.

Supreme Court Vacancy:

• 51%: The odds that President Trump replaces at least one Supreme Court Justice in 2026.

Maine Senate:

• 91%: The odds for Graham Platner to win the Democratic Senate Primary.

• 30%: The odds for Graham Platner to win the Maine Senate Election.

  • While the VICO model cites overwhelming leads for Platner against Mills in the primary election, the VICO model is less bullish on Platner’s general election chances. The model cites Collins’ strong electoral record, as well as Platner’s past scandals and a more radical platform, as reasons for a low probability.

Spotlight: Cabinet Departures

Speculation about a broader cabinet shakeup intensified after both Secretary Noem and Attorney General Bondi lost their positions within a month of each other. The President has officially denied those reports, but more changes could still be on the way.

• The odds for each cabinet member to be out of their current position over the next 60 days:

  • Howard Lutnick (Commerce): 76%

  • Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Labor): 75%

  • Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence): 46%

  • RFK Jr. (Health and Human Services): 42%

  • Pete Hegseth (War): 35%

  • Sean Duffy (Transportation): 34%

  • Doug Collins (Veterans Affairs): 29%

  • Marco Rubio (State): 21%

  • Russell Vought (Management and Budget): 11%

  • Chris Wright (Energy): 10%

  • Scott Turner (Housing and Urban Development): 10%

  • John Ratcliffe (CIA Director): 9%

  • MarkWayne Mullin (Homeland Security): 8%

  • Jamieson Greer (Trade Representative): 4.5%

  • Scott Bessent (Treasury): 4%

  • Doug Burgum (Interior): 4%

  • Brooke Rollins (Agriculture): 4%

  • Linda McMahon (Education): 3%

Economics: Oil Prices, Recession Odds

The March jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, with the US adding 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs and unemployment falling to 4.3%. Expectations have also grown for the BLS inflation report, set to be released on Friday. Friday’s inflation worries led one Fed President to speculate on the necessity of upcoming rate hikes. This week:

Job Growth:

• 43%: The odds for the US to lose jobs in April. (Polymarket: 31%)

  • The VICO model notes that despite the US adding jobs in March, the labor force shrank by 396,000, which accounts for most of the decrease in the unemployment rate. Combined with slowing wage growth, the model remains skeptical of future job growth.

Inflation:

• Last week: 44.5% → Today: 64%: The odds for inflation to increase by at least 0.9% in March?

  • The forecast jumped last week as gas remained expensive and Wall Street expectations for inflation rose.

• 88% →84%: The odds that US inflation will be above 4% within the next 365 days.

  • Bloomberg ticker: VICOBQYT

Rate Hikes:

• 7%: The odds for a rate hike before June 30.

  • While inflation concerns are growing, the VICO model stresses that declining economic growth makes rate hikes unlikely even if greater inflation is realized.

About Us

• The VICO platform provides a new category of decision-superiority: an AI-powered forecasting, simulation, and scenario-assessment engine that converts qualitative signals—news and expert judgments about real-world events—into standardized, quantitative probabilities and insights.

• VICO empowers decision-makers with measurable insight into what is likely to happen and what could happen, replacing slow, subjective human analysis or capricious prediction markets with continuously updated, model-driven forecasts.

• Our models are rigorously backtested, achieving Brier Scores below 0.15. (Note: Specific Brier Scores and backtesting information can be provided upon request to our customers.)

• Learn more and obtain a beta account at www.vico.io or email us at inquire@vico.io

Methodology and Copyright Notes:

All percentage changes are over the last week except where noted.

All data and content are owned by and copyrighted by VICO Technologies Inc.