The September jobs report lands on October 2, with consensus near 90,000 and unemployment at 4.1%. As the Fed weighs another possible hike, September's numbers will be crucial for the FOMC's decision.

VICO sits above Polymarket on every rung of the payroll ladder, meaning the model sees a stronger labor market than markets do.

The model runs above markets across the board, putting at least 100,000 jobs at 48%, at least 50,000 at 87%, and any positive growth at 92%.

The optimism reflects current labor market trends. Coming in below 50,000 jobs would require a particularly fast cooling, after a run of positive reports and continued job growth in AI.

Friday's number matters less for the headline than for the one variable keeping hikes alive: whether the labor market holds. As long as it does, the Fed has room to keep going.

• If unemployment moves above 4.1%, the model's probability of a 2026 rate hike drops to 49%, down from 78% today.

A weak report would signal the need to balance inflation concerns against a cooling labor market, which could keep the Fed from raising rates.