• Little replaced Angie Craig, who held this swing seat from 2018, and VICO worries about his progressive platform in a traditionally moderate district.

• The model sees real danger from her progressive flank: the primary challenger who refused to endorse her took 16% in the open primary, letting her Republican rival finish first. VICO worries those voters may stay home, opening the door to a Republican win.

• In a Democrat-vs-Democrat general, VICO backs Matsui to near certainty on incumbency and money, while Kalshi is more bullish on progressive challenger Mai Vang.

• The district is competitive, but VICO thinks Bouchard's dominant fundraising edge matters more than the markets do.

• Markets favor progressive challenger William Lawrence, but VICO sees his record, including support for defunding the police, as a liability against the incumbent.

The model still has Democrats as clear favorites to win the House, just by a smaller margin than the prediction markets.

The largest divergences all point the same way: VICO is less bullish on progressive candidates than the markets, and more concerned about a Republican fundraising edge in a few key races.