Trump and Zelensky are scheduled to meet today on the sidelines of the UN, where Trump plans to push him toward a ceasefire halting strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

The meeting comes as diesel hits the most expensive price tag in American history, over $6.50 on the national average.

But VICO reads a deal as unlikely and sees the more probable path as a grinding energy war that continues to squeeze Russia's exports and, in turn, US consumers.

A mutual energy ceasefire in the next 90 days sits at just 25%, because neither side is likely to agree to a deal. The VICO model argues that Moscow sees the destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid as one of their main goals, and Ukraine views its strikes as successfully harming the Russian economy.

Those strikes are the story the model believes in: a 76% chance Russian crude or refined-product exports fall 10% or more in Q4. Rather than force Moscow's hand, Washington is likelier to lean on Kyiv, with a 55% chance it conditions further aid or intelligence on Ukraine accepting a truce.

The cost of a war with no truce continues to keep diesel prices up: with Russian barrels off the market and refineries burning on both sides, the VICO model sees just a 10% chance US diesel falls below $6 a gallon in the next 90 days.