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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

California

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • RJames Gallagher10.7%
  • DMike McGuire89.3%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DJared W. Huffman97%
  • RRobin Littau3%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DAmerish "Ami" Bera89.8%
  • RRobb Tucker10.2%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DEric Jones24.3%
  • DC. Michael "Mike" Thompson75.7%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DMichael Masuda10.4%
  • RThomas "Tom" McClintock89.6%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • IKevin Kiley13.1%
  • DRichard Pan86.9%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DDoris K. Matsui51.5%
  • DMai Vang48.5%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DJohn Raymond Garamendi96.1%
  • RRudy Recile3.9%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DJosh Harder99%
  • RJohn D. McBride1%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DMark DeSaulnier98%
  • RJeffrey "Jeff" Frese2%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DConnie Chan28.6%
  • DScott Wiener71.4%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DJamie Joyce2%
  • DLateefah Simon98%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DAdam C. Gray73.9%
  • RKevin J. Lincoln, II26.1%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DMelissa Hernandez5.1%
  • DAisha Wahab94.9%
Details & rationale →

District 15

Win probability
  • RCharles Hoelter2%
  • DKevin Mullin98%
Details & rationale →

District 16

Win probability
  • DSam T. Liccardo97%
  • RPeter Sundin Soulé3%
Details & rationale →

District 17

Win probability
  • DRohit "Ro" Khanna99%
  • RRitesh Tandon1%
Details & rationale →

District 18

Win probability
  • RShane Lewis1%
  • DZoe Lofgren99%
Details & rationale →

District 19

Win probability
  • DJames Varni "Jimmy" Panetta98%
  • RPeter Coe Verbica2%
Details & rationale →

District 20

Win probability
  • RVince Fong97%
  • DSandra Van Scotter3%
Details & rationale →

District 21

Win probability
  • DJim Costa96%
  • RKyle Kirkland4%
Details & rationale →

District 22

Win probability
  • RDavid G. Valadao28.6%
  • DRandy Villegas71.4%
Details & rationale →

District 23

Win probability
  • DTessa Lynn Hodge3.1%
  • RJay Obernolte96.9%
Details & rationale →

District 24

Win probability
  • DSalud O. Carbajal97%
  • RRobert Jeffrey "Bob" Smith3%
Details & rationale →

District 25

Win probability
  • RJoe Males4%
  • DRaul Ruiz96%
Details & rationale →

District 26

Win probability
  • RSamuel "Sam" Gallucci4%
  • DJacqui V. Irwin96%
Details & rationale →

District 27

Win probability
  • RJason Gibbs8.2%
  • DGeorge Whitesides91.8%
Details & rationale →

District 28

Win probability
  • DJudy Chu96%
  • RApril A. Verlato4%
Details & rationale →

District 29

Win probability
  • DAngélica Maria Dueñas2%
  • DLuz Maria Rivas98%
Details & rationale →

District 30

Win probability
  • DLaura Friedman99%
  • RScott Alan Meyers1%
Details & rationale →

District 31

Win probability
  • REric J. Ching6.9%
  • DGilbert "Gil" Cisneros93.1%
Details & rationale →

District 32

Win probability
  • DBrad Sherman98%
  • RLarry Thompson2%
Details & rationale →

District 33

Win probability
  • DPete Aguilar96%
  • RStephanie M. Vargas4%
Details & rationale →

District 34

Win probability
  • DJimmy Gomez23.3%
  • DAngela Gonzales-Torres76.7%
Details & rationale →

District 35

Win probability
  • RMike Cargile2.9%
  • DNorma J. Torres97.1%
Details & rationale →

District 36

Win probability
  • RHouston Brignano2%
  • DTed W. Lieu98%
Details & rationale →

District 37

Win probability
  • DSydney K. Kamlager-Dove97%
  • DSamantha Mota3%
Details & rationale →

District 38

Win probability
  • RPedro "Antonio" Casas5.9%
  • DHilda L. Solis94.1%
Details & rationale →

District 39

Win probability
  • RSteve Manos2%
  • DMark A. Takano98%
Details & rationale →

District 40

Win probability
  • RKenneth S. "Ken" Calvert57.6%
  • RYoung Kim42.4%
Details & rationale →

District 41

Win probability
  • RMitchell Lee "Mitch" Clemmons3.9%
  • DLinda T. Sánchez96.1%
Details & rationale →

District 42

Win probability
  • RBrian J. Burley4%
  • DRobert Garcia96%
Details & rationale →

District 43

Win probability
  • RCristian Morales2%
  • DMaxine Waters98%
Details & rationale →

District 44

Win probability
  • RGenevieve Angel1%
  • DNanette Diaz Barragán99%
Details & rationale →

District 45

Win probability
  • DDerek Tran81.8%
  • RChuong V. Vo18.2%
Details & rationale →

District 46

Win probability
  • DJose Luis "Lou" Correa98%
  • RDavid Pan2%
Details & rationale →

District 47

Win probability
  • RJenny Rae Le Roux19%
  • DDave Min81%
Details & rationale →

District 48

Win probability
  • RJim Desmond43.5%
  • DMarni von Wilpert56.5%
Details & rationale →

District 49

Win probability
  • RArmen Kurdian5.9%
  • DMike Levin94.1%
Details & rationale →

District 50

Win probability
  • RStephen Jay "Steve" Cohen2%
  • DScott Peters98%
Details & rationale →

District 51

Win probability
  • RRicardo Cabrera2%
  • DSara Jacobs98%
Details & rationale →

District 52

Win probability
  • RJeffery "Jeff" Belle1%
  • DJuan Carlos Vargas99%
Details & rationale →

California · Race details

District 48

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • RJim DesmondRepublican43.5%
  • DMarni von WilpertDemocratic56.5%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)