FUTURE MONITOR
SECTIONS
ALLPOLITICSECONOMICSGEOPOLITICSOPINIONSFUTURE FRONT PAGEUS ELECTIONS
LOG INSIGN UP
ABOUTNEWSLETTERVICO.IO ↗

STORIES AND FORECASTS ARE CREATED BY THE VICO AI MODEL AND EDITED BY THE VICO EDITORIAL TEAM.

© 2026 VICO
FUTURE MONITOR
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
EXPLORE VICO.IO ↗
LOG INSIGN UP
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Florida

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DJennifer Gay "Gay" Valimont1%
  • RJimmy Patronis, Jr.99%
  • ITyler Leeana Davis0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DAmanda Marie Green5.9%
  • RAustin Rogers94.1%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DSeth Allan Harp4.9%
  • RKat Cammack94.1%
  • IMike Klein1%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DLaShonda "L.J." Holloway4%
  • RAaron P. Bean96%
  • OMike Sell0%
  • ITodd Schaefer0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DRachel Grage8.2%
  • RJohn H. Rutherford90.8%
  • OWilliam Lintag Upham1%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DEric Yonce4%
  • RRandy Fine96%
  • LAndrew Parrott0%
  • OAlec Pavlik0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DBale Dalton26%
  • RRyan Elijah74%
  • LChristopher Allen Dennison0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DJennifer Jenkins4%
  • RMike Haridopolos96%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DDarren Soto44%
  • RDan Green56%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DMaxwell Alejandro Frost100%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DJames Pericola6.2%
  • RJoe Strada93.8%
  • LRalph Groves0%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DKimberly Overman10.1%
  • RGus Michael Bilirakis89.9%
  • IBranden Scrivener0%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DLeela J. Gray27.2%
  • RAnna Paulina Luna71.8%
  • ITony C. D'Arrigo1%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DKatherine Anne "Kathy" Castor55.9%
  • RMike Beltran44.1%
  • LBrian Keith Lambert0%
  • OSalomon Hernandez, Sr.0%
  • OKeith Varian0%
Details & rationale →

District 15

Win probability
  • DRobert People6%
  • RLaurel Lee94%
  • OAngie Boone0%
Details & rationale →

District 16

Win probability
  • DKelly Kirschner16.5%
  • RSydney Gruters82.5%
  • IMark Davis1%
Details & rationale →

District 17

Win probability
  • DMatthew "Matt" Montavon5.9%
  • RGreg W. Steube94.1%
  • IMichael Quirk0%
Details & rationale →

District 18

Win probability
  • DCurtis Gibson4%
  • RScott Franklin96%
  • IDeva Simmons0%
Details & rationale →

District 19

Win probability
  • DVictor M. Arias5.8%
  • RJim Schwartzel94.2%
  • ISeth Haskin0%
  • OAlexandra "Alex" Zakhvatayev0%
Details & rationale →

District 20

Win probability
  • DDebbie Wasserman Schultz100%
  • RBrent Andersen0%
  • OKedner Maxime0%
Details & rationale →

District 21

Win probability
  • DJames T. Martin9.9%
  • RBrian Mast89.1%
  • IAlexander R. Cooke1%
  • ODavid S. Fabrikant0%
Details & rationale →

District 22

Win probability
  • DPia Dandiya50%
  • RCasey Askar50%
Details & rationale →

District 23

Win probability
  • DLois J. Frankel94%
  • RDeborah Adeimy6%
Details & rationale →

District 24

Win probability
  • DOliver G. Gilbert, III99%
  • RTe Mayonna Brown1%
  • OPatricia Gonzalez0%
Details & rationale →

District 25

Win probability
  • DJared E. Moskowitz64.8%
  • RScott M. Singer35.2%
  • LPeter Jassenoff0%
  • OMichaelangelo Collins Hamilton0%
Details & rationale →

District 26

Win probability
  • DNicole Locklin4.2%
  • RMario Diaz-Balart95.8%
  • IDeborah Ann Meidinger Hosey0%
Details & rationale →

District 27

Win probability
  • DEliott Rodriguez26.9%
  • RMarìa Elvira Salazar73.1%
Details & rationale →

District 28

Win probability
  • DPhil "Felipe" Ehr8%
  • RCarlos A. Giménez92%
  • IEddy Rojas0%
Details & rationale →

Florida · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DRachel GrageDemocratic8.2%
  • RJohn H. RutherfordRepublican90.8%
  • OWilliam Lintag UphamWrite-in1%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: William Lintag Upham — Republican.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)