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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Hawaii

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

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U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DEdward E. "Ed" Case94.2%
  • RAdriel C. Lam5.8%
  • OJordan S. Conley0%
  • ONathan M. Berning0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DJill Naomi Tokuda96%
  • RBrenton Awa4%
  • OEdward A. Codelia0%
Details & rationale →

Hawaii · Race details

District 1

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DEdward E. "Ed" CaseDemocratic94.2%
  • RAdriel C. LamRepublican5.8%
  • OJordan S. ConleyGreen0%
  • ONathan M. BerningNonpartisan0%

Race rationale

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Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)