FUTURE MONITOR
SECTIONS
ALLPOLITICSECONOMICSGEOPOLITICSOPINIONSFUTURE FRONT PAGEUS ELECTIONS
LOG INSIGN UP
ABOUTNEWSLETTERVICO.IO ↗

STORIES AND FORECASTS ARE CREATED BY THE VICO AI MODEL AND EDITED BY THE VICO EDITORIAL TEAM.

© 2026 VICO
FUTURE MONITOR
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
EXPLORE VICO.IO ↗
LOG INSIGN UP
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Illinois

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DJonathan L. Jackson99%
  • RChristian Maxwell1%
  • OJe'Rico J. Brown0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DDonna Miller97%
  • RMichael Scott "Mike" Noack3%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DDelia C. Ramirez100%
  • RAngel Oakley0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DPatty García94.1%
  • RLupe Castillo2%
  • IChristopher Roman "Chris" Getty3.9%
  • OEdward "Ed" Hershey0%
  • OMayra Macías0%
  • OByron Sigcho López0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DMike Quigley100%
  • RTom "Tommy" Hanson0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DSean Casten98%
  • RNiki Conforti2%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DLa Shawn K. Ford96%
  • RChad Koppie, Sr.4%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DMelissa Luburich Bean91.9%
  • RJennifer Davis8.1%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DDaniel Biss96.1%
  • RJohn Elleson3.9%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DBradley Scott "Brad" Schneider96%
  • RCarl Lambrecht4%
  • OAlexandria Keating-Sofiakis0%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DG. William "Bill" Foster95.9%
  • RJeffrey D. "Jeff" Walter4.1%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DJulie Fortier4%
  • RMichael J. "Mike" Bost96%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DNikki Budzinski94.1%
  • RJeff Wilson5.9%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DLauren A. Underwood92.2%
  • RJames Thomas "Jim" Marter7.8%
Details & rationale →

District 15

Win probability
  • DJennifer Ann Todd3%
  • RMary E. Miller97%
Details & rationale →

District 16

Win probability
  • DPaul Nolley2%
  • RDarin McKay LaHood98%
  • OJohn Kitover0%
Details & rationale →

District 17

Win probability
  • DEric Sorensen93.1%
  • RDillan S. Vancil6.9%
Details & rationale →

Illinois · Race details

District 4

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DPatty GarcíaDemocratic94.1%
  • RLupe CastilloRepublican2%
  • IChristopher Roman "Chris" GettyIndependent3.9%
  • OEdward "Ed" HersheyWorking Class0%
  • OMayra MacíasWrite-in0%
  • OByron Sigcho LópezWrite-in0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. The source has not independently confirmed ballot certification for: Mayra Macías; Byron Sigcho López. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Christopher Roman "Chris" Getty — Democratic; Mayra Macías — Democratic, Independent; Byron Sigcho López — Democratic, Independent.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)