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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Indiana

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DFrank J. Mrvan93.9%
  • RBarb Regnitz6.1%
  • OAlexander R. "Alex" Degman0%
  • OJames l. Johnson, Jr.0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DJamee Decio2%
  • RRudolph C. "Rudy" Yakym, III98%
  • LWilliam Eric Henry0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DKelly Elizabeth Thompson2%
  • RMarlin A. Stutzman98%
  • OPhillip D. "Phil" Beachy0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DDrew Cox1%
  • RJames R. "Jim" Baird98%
  • ODavid Eugene "E." Bokash1%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DJames David Ford "J.D." Ford18.3%
  • RVictoria Spartz81.7%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DCynthia "Cinde" Wirth1%
  • RJefferson Shreve99%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DAndré D. Carson98%
  • RPatrick Brault McAuley2%
  • LJames Michael Sceniak0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DMary Theresa Allen5%
  • RMark Messmer95%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DBradley Allen "Brad" Meyer2%
  • RErin Houchin98%
  • LTonya L. Hudson0%
  • OFloyd Michael Taylor0%
Details & rationale →

Indiana · Race details

District 1

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DFrank J. MrvanDemocratic93.9%
  • RBarb RegnitzRepublican6.1%
  • OAlexander R. "Alex" DegmanWrite-in0%
  • OJames l. Johnson, Jr.Write-in0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Alexander R. "Alex" Degman — Independent; James l. Johnson, Jr. — Other.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)