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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Iowa

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DChristina Bohannan64.9%
  • RMariannette Jane Miller-Meeks33%
  • IMichael Bridgford2.1%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DLindsay James52.4%
  • RJoe Mitchell47.6%
  • LRichard "Rick" Stewart0%
  • IDave Bushaw0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DSarah Trone Garriott59.5%
  • RZach Nunn40.5%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DDave Dawson7.8%
  • RChris McGowan92.2%
Details & rationale →

Iowa · Race details

District 1

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DChristina BohannanDemocratic64.9%
  • RMariannette Jane Miller-MeeksRepublican33%
  • IMichael BridgfordNo Party2.1%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)