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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Kentucky

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DJohn Andrew "Drew" Williams2%
  • RJames R. Comer98%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DMegan Wingfield1%
  • RSteven Brett "Brett" Guthrie99%
  • IThomas A. Loecken0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DMorgan McGarvey96%
  • RMaria Teresa Rodriguez4%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DMelissa Claire Strange4.1%
  • REd Gallrein95.9%
  • LJeremy Ryan Todd0%
  • OPeter Harmon Williams0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DNed Pillersdorf3%
  • RHarold Dallas "Hal" Rogers97%
  • IGerardo Serrano0%
  • IMikel Wein0%
  • OBilly Ray Wilson0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DZach Dembo24.5%
  • RRalph A. Alvarado73.5%
  • OPeter Shaw Keller "Pete" Lynch2%
  • IJay J. Bowman0%
  • ORobert Allen Quigley0%
Details & rationale →

Kentucky · Race details

District 4

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DMelissa Claire StrangeDemocratic4.1%
  • REd GallreinRepublican95.9%
  • LJeremy Ryan ToddLibertarian0%
  • OPeter Harmon WilliamsWrite-in0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)