Win probabilities
- DDan McKayDemocratic2.6%
- DPatricia Ann "Pat" MooreDemocratic1.7%
- DAntonio WilsonDemocratic1.7%
- RStewart Cathey, Jr.Republican6.9%
- RMisti Smith CordellRepublican16.4%
- ROscar "Omar" DantzlerRepublican1.7%
- RMichael Charles EcholsRepublican44%
- RMichael Gabriel "Gabe" FirmentRepublican23.3%
- RAustin MageeRepublican1.7%
Candidate sources & notes
Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. This is the 3 November open U.S. Representative primary slate, not a final two-candidate runoff field; the official calendar lists the open U.S. Representative general election on 12 December. The Senate follows a different 2026 schedule. The forecast still names Blake Miguez for District 5, but the current source and his campaign place him in District 6. The forecast subject and probability remain attached to the original District 5 question.