FUTURE MONITOR
SECTIONS
ALLPOLITICSECONOMICSGEOPOLITICSOPINIONSFUTURE FRONT PAGEUS ELECTIONS
LOG INSIGN UP
ABOUTNEWSLETTERVICO.IO ↗

STORIES AND FORECASTS ARE CREATED BY THE VICO AI MODEL AND EDITED BY THE VICO EDITORIAL TEAM.

© 2026 VICO
FUTURE MONITOR
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
EXPLORE VICO.IO ↗
LOG INSIGN UP
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Louisiana

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DLauren Jewett1%
  • RRandall Steven "Randy" Arrington0%
  • RStephen J. "Steve" Scalise99%
  • IE. "Liddy" Glass0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • RPeter Williams2%
  • LLisa Ballay0%
  • IWalter "Rocky" Beach0%
  • IRenada "Honey" Collins1%
  • DTroy A. Carter, Sr.97%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DJohn David Day0%
  • DPriscilla Gonzalez1.9%
  • DCaleb "With a C" Walker1%
  • R'Kate' Cotten1.9%
  • RClay Higgins95.2%
  • ITia Marie LeBrun0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DConrad Roberts Cable0%
  • DMatthew "Matt" Gromlich0%
  • RGordon Heslop0%
  • RJames Michael "Mike" Johnson100%
  • RMichael "Mike" Nichols0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DDan McKay2.6%
  • DPatricia Ann "Pat" Moore1.7%
  • DAntonio Wilson1.7%
  • RStewart Cathey, Jr.6.9%
  • RMisti Smith Cordell16.4%
  • ROscar "Omar" Dantzler1.7%
  • RMichael Charles Echols44%
  • RMichael Gabriel "Gabe" Firment23.3%
  • RAustin Magee1.7%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DChauna Banks5.4%
  • DPatrick "Pat" Forbes2.2%
  • DLindsay "Rubia" Garcia2.2%
  • RAnjanita Monique "Monique" Appeaning2.2%
  • RLarry Davis, III2.2%
  • RRick Edmonds38.7%
  • RMichael Edward Mebruer2.2%
  • RBlake Miguez32.3%
  • RStephen Wagley12.9%
  • LRufus H. Craig, Jr.0%
Details & rationale →

Louisiana · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DDan McKayDemocratic2.6%
  • DPatricia Ann "Pat" MooreDemocratic1.7%
  • DAntonio WilsonDemocratic1.7%
  • RStewart Cathey, Jr.Republican6.9%
  • RMisti Smith CordellRepublican16.4%
  • ROscar "Omar" DantzlerRepublican1.7%
  • RMichael Charles EcholsRepublican44%
  • RMichael Gabriel "Gabe" FirmentRepublican23.3%
  • RAustin MageeRepublican1.7%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. This is the 3 November open U.S. Representative primary slate, not a final two-candidate runoff field; the official calendar lists the open U.S. Representative general election on 12 December. The Senate follows a different 2026 schedule. The forecast still names Blake Miguez for District 5, but the current source and his campaign place him in District 6. The forecast subject and probability remain attached to the original District 5 question.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 3 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 4 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 5 (opens in a new tab)