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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Michigan

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DCallie Barr5.9%
  • RJohn W. "Jack" Bergman94.1%
  • OLaVeta Davenport0%
  • LArnett Satterla0%
  • ORobert "Doc" Kovaly0%
  • IZebulon Hart Featherly0%
  • OLiz Hakola0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DBenjamin "Ben" Ambrose3.9%
  • RJohn R. Moolenaar96.1%
  • OCharlotte Irene Magoon0%
  • ORichard Sills0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DHillary Scholten89.5%
  • RTerri DeBoer10.5%
  • OJoe Jock0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DSean McCann42.5%
  • RWilliam P. "Bill" Huizenga57.5%
  • OShafina "Che" Barnett0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DChristian A. Vukasovich1%
  • RTimothy L. "Tim" Walberg99%
  • OJames "Jim" Bronke0%
  • LRonald A. Muszynski0%
  • OSharon Marie Renier0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DDebbie Dingell98%
  • RHeather Smiley2%
  • OClyde K. Shabazz0%
  • LTimothy A. Teagan0%
  • OMichael Raymond "Mike" Mickevicius0%
  • OLinda Rayburn0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DWilliam Lawrence59%
  • RThomas More "Tom" Barrett41%
  • OShane Dedrick0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DKristen McDonald Rivet90.2%
  • RThomas James "Tom" Smith9.8%
  • OJim Casha0%
  • LC. Mia Pettus0%
  • OKathy Goodwin0%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DSteven Raymond "Ray" Pooley3%
  • RLisa McClain97%
  • ODestiny Clayton0%
  • LKevin Vayko0%
  • OJohn Vlahos0%
  • OJim Walkowicz0%
  • OJasen D. Cartwright0%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DChristina Bertrand Hines48.6%
  • RMichael "Mike" Bouchard51.4%
  • OKwabena "Cubby" Nkromo0%
  • LMike Saliba0%
  • OAndrea L. Kirby0%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DJeremy Moss92.4%
  • REthan D. Baker4.8%
  • ORyan Teasdale1%
  • LFarid Ishac0%
  • IAnil Kumar1.9%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DRashida Tlaib100%
  • RJames D. Hooper0%
  • OBrenda K. Sanders0%
  • OMarc Joseph Sosnowski0%
  • OGary Walkowicz0%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DDonavan McKinney100%
  • RTaras "T.P." Nykoriak0%
  • ORaelyn Light0%
  • OChristopher "Chris" Dardzinski0%
  • OSimone R. Coleman0%
Details & rationale →

Michigan · Race details

District 11

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DJeremy MossDemocratic92.4%
  • REthan D. BakerRepublican4.8%
  • ORyan TeasdaleGreen1%
  • LFarid IshacLibertarian0%
  • IAnil KumarNo Party Affiliation1.9%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. The source has not independently confirmed ballot certification for: Ryan Teasdale; Farid Ishac; Anil Kumar. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Anil Kumar — Democratic.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)