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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Minnesota

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DJacob "Jake" Johnson27.7%
  • RBrad Finstad72.3%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DMatt Little92.3%
  • REric R. Pratt7.7%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DKelly Louise Morrison94.2%
  • RTyler Michael Bass5.8%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DBetty McCollum95.1%
  • RPaul Wikstrom4.9%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DIlhan Omar96%
  • RJohn Nagel4%
  • IDeVelle LaVaughn Jackson0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DDoug Chapin2%
  • RThomas Earl "Tom" Emmer, Jr.98%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DErik Osberg2.1%
  • RMichelle Fischbach97.9%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DTrina Swanson12.2%
  • RPeter Allen "Pete" Stauber87.8%
Details & rationale →

Minnesota · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DIlhan OmarDemocratic-Farmer Labor96%
  • RJohn NagelRepublican4%
  • IDeVelle LaVaughn JacksonIndependent0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)