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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Missouri

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DWesley Bell95.1%
  • RPaul Berry, III4.9%
  • LTom Schmitz0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DFrederick Paul "Fred" "FP" Wellman26.1%
  • RAnn L. Wagner73.9%
  • LBrandon Coulter Daugherty0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DBethany E. Mann6.9%
  • RRobert Frank "Bob" Onder, Jr.93.1%
  • LJames "Jim" Higgins0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DJordan J. Herrera6%
  • RMark Alford94%
  • LThomas Holbrook0%
  • OKathleenMae Rogers0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DEmanuel Cleaver, II89.4%
  • RRichard Ray "Rick" Brattin, Jr.10.6%
  • LRandall David "Randy" Langkraehr0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DJosh Smead9.4%
  • RChris Stigall90.6%
  • LEdward A. "Andy" Maidment0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DMissi Hesketh1%
  • REric W. Burlison99%
  • LKevin Craig0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DChristopher "Chris" Reichard3.9%
  • RJason T. Smith96.1%
  • LRebecca Sharpe Lombard0%
Details & rationale →

Missouri · Race details

District 4

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DJordan J. HerreraDemocratic6%
  • RMark AlfordRepublican94%
  • LThomas HolbrookLibertarian0%
  • OKathleenMae RogersWrite-in0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. The source has not independently confirmed ballot certification for: KathleenMae Rogers. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: KathleenMae Rogers — Independent.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)