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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

New Jersey

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DDonald W. Norcross97%
  • RDamon Galdo3%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DZachary "Zack" Mullock18.6%
  • RJeff Van Drew81.4%
  • IRamon Mora, Jr.0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DHerbert "Herb" Conaway, Jr.95%
  • RMichael Patrick McGuire5%
  • OSteven "Steve" Welzer0%
  • ORyan Michael Kelly0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DRachel Peace1%
  • RChristopher Henry "Chris" Smith99%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DJoshua S. "Josh" Gottheimer96%
  • RSean Joseph Kirrane4%
  • OAdam Rueda0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DFrank Pallone, Jr.95.1%
  • RHillary Herzig4.9%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DRebecca Bennett82.5%
  • RThomas H. "Tom" Kean, Jr.15.5%
  • OSeamus Patrick O'Toole1.9%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DRobert J. "Rob" Menendez98%
  • OCraig Honts0%
  • ODa'shone Hughey0%
  • IAristotle "Ari" Eliopoulos2%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DNelida "Nellie" Pou88%
  • RRosemary L. "Rosie" Pino12%
  • OTerrisa Bukovinac0%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DLaMonica R. McIver98%
  • RCarmen Bucco2%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DAnalilia Mejia97.9%
  • RJoe Hathaway2.1%
  • OAlan B. Bond0%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DAdam Hamawy94.9%
  • RGregg Mele4%
  • OAndres Jinete1%
  • OWinston Jordan0%
Details & rationale →

New Jersey · Race details

District 3

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DHerbert "Herb" Conaway, Jr.Democratic95%
  • RMichael Patrick McGuireRepublican5%
  • OSteven "Steve" WelzerGreen0%
  • ORyan Michael KellyAFFORDABILITY, ACCOUNTABILITY, PEOPLE0%

Race rationale

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Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)