FUTURE MONITOR
SECTIONS
ALLPOLITICSECONOMICSGEOPOLITICSOPINIONSFUTURE FRONT PAGEUS ELECTIONS
LOG INSIGN UP
ABOUTNEWSLETTERVICO.IO ↗

STORIES AND FORECASTS ARE CREATED BY THE VICO AI MODEL AND EDITED BY THE VICO EDITORIAL TEAM.

© 2026 VICO
FUTURE MONITOR
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
EXPLORE VICO.IO ↗
LOG INSIGN UP
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

New York

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DChristopher J. "Chris" Gallant19.3%
  • RNicholas J. "Nick" LaLota80.7%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DPatrick "Pat" Halpin13.7%
  • RAndrew R. Garbarino86.3%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DThomas R. "Tom" Suozzi85%
  • RMichael J. "Mike" LiPetri, Jr.15%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DLaura Gillen86%
  • RJeanine C. Driscoll14%
  • LBlay Tarnoff0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DGregory Weldon Meeks100%
  • RGeorge Marsh0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DGrace Meng96%
  • RJoseph Chou4%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DClaire Valdez96.1%
  • RMelvin Rivera3.9%
  • OPriscilla Ghaznavi0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DHakeem S. Jeffries99%
  • RLewis Mizrahi1%
  • OSahir Ahsan0%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DYvette D. Clarke99%
  • RJoel Anabilah-Azumah1%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DBrad Lander96.1%
  • RJennifer E. Moore3.9%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DMichael "Mike" DeCillis6%
  • RNicole Malliotakis94%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DMicah Charles Lasher98%
  • RCaroline Shinkle2%
  • OWilneida Negron0%
  • OKaren Ortiz0%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DDarializa Avila Chevalier96.1%
  • RJomo Manual Williams3.9%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez98%
  • RDiamant Hysenaj2%
Details & rationale →

District 15

Win probability
  • DRitchie John Torres100%
  • RStylo Adonis Sapaskis0%
  • OGonzalo Duran0%
  • OAndre Clement Easton0%
  • OJose David Vega0%
Details & rationale →

District 16

Win probability
  • DGeorge Stephen Latimer96.1%
  • RJoseph J. Cinquemani3.9%
Details & rationale →

District 17

Win probability
  • DCaitlin "Cait" Conley62.8%
  • RMichael Vincent "Mike" Lawler37.2%
Details & rationale →

District 18

Win probability
  • DPatrick K. "Pat" Ryan95.9%
  • RJacqueline Mary "Jackie" Auringer4.1%
Details & rationale →

District 19

Win probability
  • DJosh Riley87.5%
  • RPeter Karl Oberacker, Jr.12.5%
Details & rationale →

District 20

Win probability
  • DPaul David Tonko97.9%
  • RRalph F. Ambrosio2.1%
Details & rationale →

District 21

Win probability
  • DBlake Gendebien26.4%
  • RAnthony Thomas Constantino73.6%
Details & rationale →

District 22

Win probability
  • DJohn W. Mannion92%
  • RKailee Marie Buller8%
Details & rationale →

District 23

Win probability
  • DAaron Gies6%
  • RNicholas A. "Nick" Langworthy94%
Details & rationale →

District 24

Win probability
  • DAlissa J. Ellman11.1%
  • RClaudia Tenney88.9%
Details & rationale →

District 25

Win probability
  • DJoseph D. "Joe" Morelle91.6%
  • RVirginia E. McIntyre8.4%
Details & rationale →

District 26

Win probability
  • DTimothy M. "Tim" Kennedy96.1%
  • RDennis E. Hannon3.9%
Details & rationale →

New York · Race details

District 4

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DLaura GillenDemocratic86%
  • RJeanine C. DriscollConservative, Republican14%
  • LBlay TarnoffLibertarian0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)