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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

North Carolina

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DDonald Gene "Don" Davis40.2%
  • RLaurie Gaye Moe Buckhout58.8%
  • LThomas Aaron "Tom" Bailey1%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DDeborah Koff Ross92.3%
  • REugene Farley "Gene" Douglass7.7%
  • LMatthew Frank "Matt" Laszacs0%
  • OBrian McGinnis0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DRaymond Edward Smith, Jr.5.1%
  • RGregory Francis "Greg" Murphy94.9%
  • LDaniel Thomas Cavender0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DValerie Paige Foushee94.2%
  • RMahesh Aychut "Max" Ganorkar5.8%
  • LGuy Philip Meilleur0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DCharles Noble "Chuck" Hubbard10%
  • RVirginia Ann Foxx89.1%
  • LRobert Blaine Luffman0.9%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DCyril Anthony Jefferson21.8%
  • RAddison Parker McDowell78.2%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DKimberly Michelle Hardy9%
  • RDavid Cheston Rouzer91%
  • LMaad Hatiz Abu-Ghazalah0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DColby Lawrence Watson4.3%
  • RMark Everette Harris95.7%
  • ORobert William "Bo" Whitehead0%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DRichard Neece Ojeda, II9.3%
  • RRichard Lane Hudson, Jr.90.7%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DAshley Thrasher Bell7.8%
  • RPatrick Luke "Pat" Harrigan91.2%
  • LSteven Richard "Steve" Feldman1%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DJames Peterson "Jamie" Ager37.8%
  • RJennifer Capps Balkcom62.2%
  • LTravis Jason Groo0%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DAlma Shealey Adams96%
  • RJohn Christopher "Jack" Codiga4%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DPaul Jehu Barringer, III27.1%
  • RJohn Bradford "Brad" Knott72.9%
  • LSteven Zshon Michael Swinton0%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DLakesha Shanese Womack38.4%
  • RTimothy Keith "Tim" Moore61.6%
Details & rationale →

North Carolina · Race details

District 1

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DDonald Gene "Don" DavisDemocratic40.2%
  • RLaurie Gaye Moe BuckhoutRepublican58.8%
  • LThomas Aaron "Tom" BaileyLibertarian1%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)