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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Oklahoma

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DJohn Thomas Croisant5.2%
  • RMark Tedford94.8%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DBrandon Keith Wade1%
  • RJosh Brecheen99%
  • IRonnie Hopkins0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DSuzanne "Suzie" Byrd1%
  • RFrank D. Lucas99%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DMitchell Leigh Jacob2%
  • RThomas Jeffery "Tom" Cole98%
  • IRocco Bonacci0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DJena Nelson14.5%
  • RStephanie Bice84.5%
  • IRobert Patrick Henri0%
  • IAustin Rudyard Nieves0.9%
Details & rationale →

Oklahoma · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DJena NelsonDemocratic14.5%
  • RStephanie BiceRepublican84.5%
  • IRobert Patrick HenriIndependent0%
  • IAustin Rudyard NievesIndependent0.9%

Race rationale

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Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)