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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Pennsylvania

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DRobert J. "Bob" Harvie, Jr.41.2%
  • RBrian K. Fitzpatrick58.8%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DBrendan F. Boyle98%
  • RJessica Arriaga2%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DChristopher M. "Chris" Rabb99%
  • IDennis Joseph Mahoney1%
  • OAbby Tilsner0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DMadeleine Dean Cunnane94.1%
  • RAurora Stuski5.9%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DMary Gay Scanlon98%
  • RNicholas Waln Morris "Nick" Manganaro2%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DChristina Jampoler "Chrissy" Houlahan96%
  • RMartin "Marty" Young4%
  • OPhilip Vincent Cerroni0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DRobert R. "Bob" Brooks83.7%
  • RRyan Edward Mackenzie16.3%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DPaige Gebhardt Cognetti65%
  • RRobert Paul "Rob" Bresnahan, Jr.35%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DRachel Lillian Wallace3.9%
  • RDaniel Philip "Dan" Meuser96.1%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DJanelle Stelson72%
  • RScott G. Perry28%
  • IFogel G. Shimp0%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DNancy Ellen Mannion2%
  • RLloyd K. Smucker98%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DSummer Lynn Lee94.2%
  • RJames Hayes5.8%
  • OSergio Zambrana0%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DElizabeth Rhoads "Beth" Farnham3.9%
  • RJohn Joyce96.1%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DDavid Alan "lan" Bradstock5.8%
  • RGuy Lorin Reschenthaler94.2%
Details & rationale →

District 15

Win probability
  • DRaymond Allen "Ray" Bilger3%
  • RGlenn William "G.T." Thompson, Jr.97%
Details & rationale →

District 16

Win probability
  • DJustin Reed Wagner9.4%
  • RGeorge Joseph "Mike" Kelly, Jr.90.6%
Details & rationale →

District 17

Win probability
  • DChristopher Raphael "Chris" Deluzio96%
  • RAnthony G. "Tony" Guy4%
Details & rationale →

Pennsylvania · Race details

District 3

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DChristopher M. "Chris" RabbDemocratic99%
  • IDennis Joseph MahoneyIndependent1%
  • OAbby TilsnerWrite-in0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. The source has not independently confirmed ballot certification for: Dennis Joseph Mahoney; Abby Tilsner. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Abby Tilsner — Socialist Workers Party. The forecast still names Dwight Evans; the source lists him as an incumbent not seeking reelection, not an active candidate. Christopher M. "Chris" Rabb is the current source-listed Democratic candidate; no forecast probability has been reassigned.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 3 (opens in a new tab)