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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Tennessee

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DKristi Amber Mickelle Burke1%
  • RDiana Lynn Harshbarger99%
  • IJoshua Ray Ashburn0%
  • IRichard G. Baker0%
  • IChristopher T. "Chris" Campbell0%
  • IWilliam Eugene "Billy" Cody0%
  • ITyler Brice Mitchell McClain0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DMichaela J. Barnett4%
  • RTim Burchett96%
  • IBruce Fine0%
  • IAdam Heimerman0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DAnna M. Golladay5.8%
  • RCharles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann94.2%
  • IDean W. Arnold0%
  • IMary Jean "Lady J" Howard-Hill0%
  • IRodney Joe King0%
  • IDonnie Lynn Ownby0%
  • IEdward John Roland, V0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DVictoria Isabel Broderick3.9%
  • RScott Eugene DesJarlais95.1%
  • IJacob Kristopher Anders0%
  • IClay Faircloth1%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DCharles M. "Chaz" Molder9.7%
  • RCharles W. "Charlie" Hatcher90.3%
  • IJames Andrew Johnson0%
  • IMicheál "Me-Haul" O'Leary0%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DMike Croley3.9%
  • RJohnny C. Garrett96.1%
  • IChristopher Brian "Chris" Monday0%
  • IAngus Purdy0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DDarden Hunter Copeland6%
  • RMatthew Robert "Matt" Van Epps94%
  • IAndrew Jordon Koontz0%
  • ILowell Andre Reynolds0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DHeidi Kuhn5.8%
  • RDavid Kustoff94.2%
  • IAdam D. Austill0%
  • IWendell "Wells" Blankenship0%
  • IAntonio Futch0%
  • IPamela Jeanine "P." Moses0%
  • IHorace Taylor0%
  • IHenry J. Ward, III0%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DJustin J. Pearson20.2%
  • RBrent Taylor79.8%
  • IDennis Jeffrey Clark0%
  • IMichelle Davis Head0%
Details & rationale →

Tennessee · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DCharles M. "Chaz" MolderDemocratic9.7%
  • RCharles W. "Charlie" HatcherRepublican90.3%
  • IJames Andrew JohnsonIndependent0%
  • IMicheál "Me-Haul" O'LearyIndependent0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Micheál "Me-Haul" O'Leary — Republican.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)