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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Texas

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DYolanda Rena Prince2%
  • RNathaniel Quentin Moran98%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DShaun Finnie7.5%
  • RSteve Toth92.5%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DEvan Hunt9%
  • RKeith Alan Self91%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DJason Pearce3%
  • RPatrick "Pat" Fallon97%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DChelsey Alexandra Hockett3%
  • RLance Gooden97%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DDaniel Patrick "Danny" Minton4.1%
  • RJohn Kevin "Jake" Ellzey, Sr.95.9%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DElizabeth Pannill "Lizzie" Fletcher96.1%
  • RAlexander Hale3.9%
  • OEspoir Ngabo0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DLaura Jones4%
  • RJessica Hart Steinmann96%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DLeticia "Letty" Gutierrez32.8%
  • RAlexandra "Alex" Mealer67.2%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DCaitlin McClay Rourk6.2%
  • RChris Gober93.8%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DClaire Anne Reynolds2%
  • RAugust Lee Pfluger, II98%
Details & rationale →

District 12

Win probability
  • DAngela "Heli" Rodriguez Prilliman1%
  • RCraig Goldman99%
Details & rationale →

District 13

Win probability
  • DMark Nair1%
  • RRonny Lynn Jackson99%
Details & rationale →

District 14

Win probability
  • DThurman Bill Bartie2%
  • RRandy Weber98%
Details & rationale →

District 15

Win probability
  • DBobby Pulido51.9%
  • RMonica De La Cruz-Hernandez48.1%
Details & rationale →

District 16

Win probability
  • DVeronica Escobar97%
  • RAdam Bauman3%
Details & rationale →

District 17

Win probability
  • DCasey Shepard2%
  • RPeter Andrew "Pete" Sessions98%
Details & rationale →

District 18

Win probability
  • DChristian Dashaun Menefee99%
  • RRonald Dwayne Whitfield1%
Details & rationale →

District 19

Win probability
  • DKyle Rable1%
  • RTom Sell99%
Details & rationale →

District 20

Win probability
  • DJoaquin Castro96%
  • REdgardo Rafael Báez4%
Details & rationale →

District 21

Win probability
  • DKristin A. Hook7.8%
  • RMark Charles "Tex" Teixeira92.2%
Details & rationale →

District 22

Win probability
  • DMarquette Greene-Scott1%
  • RTrever Nehls99%
Details & rationale →

District 23

Win probability
  • DKaty Padilla Stout36.4%
  • RBrandon Herrera62.6%
  • IBenjamin E. "Ben" Mendoza1%
Details & rationale →

District 24

Win probability
  • DKevin Beryl Burge6.1%
  • RElizabeth Ann "Beth" Van Duyne93.9%
Details & rationale →

District 25

Win probability
  • DDione Michelle Sims4%
  • RRoger Williams96%
Details & rationale →

District 26

Win probability
  • DSteven James Shook4%
  • RBrandon Gill96%
  • LPhil Gray0%
Details & rationale →

District 27

Win probability
  • DTanya W. Lloyd6.9%
  • RMichael J. Cloud93.1%
  • OWayne Raasch0%
Details & rationale →

District 28

Win probability
  • DHenry R. Cuellar80%
  • RTano E. Tijerina20%
  • OMarlón Gerardo Durán0%
Details & rationale →

District 29

Win probability
  • DSylvia R. Garcia96.1%
  • RMartha Elena Fierro3.9%
Details & rationale →

District 30

Win probability
  • DFrederick D. Haynes, III98%
  • REverett Jackson2%
Details & rationale →

District 31

Win probability
  • DJustin Early8%
  • RJohn Rice Carter92%
  • OGregory James "Greg" Stoker0%
Details & rationale →

District 32

Win probability
  • DDan F. Barrios, Jr.10.9%
  • RJace Yarbrough89.1%
Details & rationale →

District 33

Win probability
  • DColin Allred98%
  • RPatrick David Gillespie2%
  • OMichelle Craig0%
Details & rationale →

District 34

Win probability
  • DVicente González67.3%
  • REric D. Flores32.7%
  • OEddie Espinoza0%
  • LChris B. Royal0%
Details & rationale →

District 35

Win probability
  • DJohnny C. Garcia46.5%
  • RCarlos De La Cruz, Jr.53.5%
Details & rationale →

District 36

Win probability
  • DRhonda J. Hart13.5%
  • RBrian Babin86.5%
Details & rationale →

District 37

Win probability
  • DGregorio "Greg" Casar100%
  • RLauren B. Peña0%
Details & rationale →

District 38

Win probability
  • DMelissa A. McDonough7.7%
  • RJon Bonck92.3%
  • OAlex McMenemy0%
Details & rationale →

Texas · Race details

District 23

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DKaty Padilla StoutDemocratic36.4%
  • RBrandon HerreraRepublican62.6%
  • IBenjamin E. "Ben" MendozaIndependent1%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)