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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Utah

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DBen McAdams91.1%
  • RRiley Montgomery Owen8.9%
  • LJesse Keegan West0%
  • IElias Henry Montgomery0%
  • OBabak "Bobby" Darvish0%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DPeter Crosby32.3%
  • RBlake David Moore66.7%
  • LDaniel R. Cottam1%
  • OCarlton E. Bowen0%
  • IRobert Michael Moesinger0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DKent Stewart Udell4%
  • RCeleste Maloy95%
  • OCassie Easley0%
  • LMichael Ray "Mike" Stoddard0%
  • IAdonis Hooslyn1%
  • IAyden Tate Scott0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DJonathan "Jonny" Larsen6.8%
  • RMichael S. "Mike" Kennedy93.2%
  • LTaylor Wright0%
  • ISteven Burt0%
Details & rationale →

Utah · Race details

District 4

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DJonathan "Jonny" LarsenDemocratic6.8%
  • RMichael S. "Mike" KennedyRepublican93.2%
  • LTaylor WrightLibertarian0%
  • ISteven BurtUnaffiliated0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)