FUTURE MONITOR
SECTIONS
ALLPOLITICSECONOMICSGEOPOLITICSOPINIONSFUTURE FRONT PAGEUS ELECTIONS
LOG INSIGN UP
ABOUTNEWSLETTERVICO.IO ↗

STORIES AND FORECASTS ARE CREATED BY THE VICO AI MODEL AND EDITED BY THE VICO EDITORIAL TEAM.

© 2026 VICO
FUTURE MONITOR
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
EXPLORE VICO.IO ↗
LOG INSIGN UP
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
MIDTERM TRACKERNEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
NEWSLETTER↗ABOUT
Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Virginia

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DShannon Leigh Taylor51.1%
  • RRobert J. "Rob" Wittman48.9%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DElaine Luria60.8%
  • RJennifer A. "Jen" Kiggans38.3%
  • IJ. Matthew "Matt" Baker0.8%
  • IGeral Defrance "Bishop" Staten0%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DRobert Cortez "Bobby" Scott98.9%
  • REdwin Rivera, Jr.1.1%
  • IMakiba A. Gaines0%
  • IStephen C. "Steve" Woll0%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DJennifer L. McClellan96%
  • RRobert P. "Family Man" Murray, Jr.3%
  • IJoan E. "Andrews" Bell1%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DThomas S. P. "Tom" Perriello24.1%
  • RJohn J. McGuire, III75%
  • ICooke Costa Harvey0.9%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DBeth A. Macy2.2%
  • RBenjamin Lee "Ben" Cline97.8%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DYevgeny S. "Eugene" Vindman57%
  • RDouglas A. "Doug" Ollivant43%
  • LTaner E. Demirci Lopez0%
  • IAlaha Ahrar0%
  • IJoshua E. Ertle0%
  • IRandall A. Terry0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DDonald Sternoff "Don" Beyer, Jr.99%
  • RAnthony "Tony" Sabio1%
  • LShelly M. Arnoldi0%
  • ITim S. Sharman0%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • DJoy A. Powers2%
  • RH. Morgan "Morgan" Griffith98%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • DSuhas Subramanyam88.9%
  • RDavid T. "Dave" Beckwith11.1%
  • IAhsen Mujeeb Malik0%
  • OSteven Anthony Goforth0%
  • OOmar Morsy0%
Details & rationale →

District 11

Win probability
  • DJames R. Walkinshaw84.5%
  • RArthur Grahame Purves15.5%
  • ODianne L. Blais0%
Details & rationale →

Virginia · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DThomas S. P. "Tom" PerrielloDemocratic24.1%
  • RJohn J. McGuire, IIIRepublican75%
  • ICooke Costa HarveyIndependent0.9%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. The source has not independently confirmed ballot certification for: Cooke Costa Harvey.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)