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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Washington

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DSuzan Kay DelBene96%
  • RMary Silva4%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • REdwin Harold Feller4%
  • DRichard Ray "Rick" Larsen96%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • RJohn Braun45.6%
  • DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez54.4%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DJohn Duresky12.7%
  • RAmanda McKinney87.3%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • RMichael James Baumgartner93.8%
  • DCarmela Conroy6.3%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • RTeresa Fox6%
  • DEmily Randall94%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DPramila Jayapal100%
  • RNirav Sheth0%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • RSpencer Harrison Meline5.3%
  • DKim Schrier94.7%
Details & rationale →

District 9

Win probability
  • RDouglas Michael "Doug" Basler2%
  • DDavid Adam "Adam" Smith98%
Details & rationale →

District 10

Win probability
  • RChris D. Chung3.9%
  • DMarilyn Strickland96.1%
Details & rationale →

Washington · Race details

District 5

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • RMichael James BaumgartnerRepublican93.8%
  • DCarmela ConroyDemocratic6.3%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. The Washington Secretary of State general-election listing corroborates the candidate identities.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 3 (opens in a new tab)