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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Wisconsin

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

State

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

Find a district

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability

DMitchell Berman38%
RBryan George Steil62%

Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability

DMark Pocan100%

Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability

DRebecca Cooke82.8%
RDerrick F. Van Orden16.2%
IAlexander Valiensi Kent0%
IRustin Levem Provance1%

Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability

DGwendolynne S. "Gwen" Moore100%
RTim Rogers0%
IArthur Burks0%

Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability

DAndrew "Andy" Beck7.5%
RScott L. Fitzgerald92.5%

Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability

DBradley "Brad" Smith7.1%
RGlenn S. Grothman92.9%
OMatthew John Arndt0%
IElizabeth Anne Fitzgibbon0%
IMichael "Mike" Thurow0%

Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability

DFrederic "Fred" Clark9.2%
RMichael Alfonso90.8%

Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability

DRick Crosson17.7%
RTony Wied82.3%

Details & rationale →

Wisconsin · Race details

District 3

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

DRebecca CookeDemocratic82.8%
RDerrick F. Van OrdenRepublican16.2%
IAlexander Valiensi KentIndependent0%
IRustin Levem ProvanceIndependent1%

Race rationale

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Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)