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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Wisconsin

Search for a House district or browse races by office.

Search by state name or postal abbreviation.

U.S. House

District 1

Win probability
  • DMitchell Berman38%
  • RBryan George Steil62%
Details & rationale →

District 2

Win probability
  • DMark Pocan100%
Details & rationale →

District 3

Win probability
  • DRebecca Cooke82.8%
  • RDerrick F. Van Orden16.2%
  • IAlexander Valiensi Kent0%
  • IRustin Levem Provance1%
Details & rationale →

District 4

Win probability
  • DGwendolynne S. "Gwen" Moore100%
  • RTim Rogers0%
  • IArthur Burks0%
Details & rationale →

District 5

Win probability
  • DAndrew "Andy" Beck7.5%
  • RScott L. Fitzgerald92.5%
Details & rationale →

District 6

Win probability
  • DBradley "Brad" Smith7.1%
  • RGlenn S. Grothman92.9%
  • OMatthew John Arndt0%
  • IElizabeth Anne Fitzgibbon0%
  • IMichael "Mike" Thurow0%
Details & rationale →

District 7

Win probability
  • DFrederic "Fred" Clark9.2%
  • RMichael Alfonso90.8%
Details & rationale →

District 8

Win probability
  • DRick Crosson17.7%
  • RTony Wied82.3%
Details & rationale →

Wisconsin · Race details

District 6

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DBradley "Brad" SmithDemocratic7.1%
  • RGlenn S. GrothmanRepublican92.9%
  • OMatthew John ArndtWisconsin Green0%
  • IElizabeth Anne FitzgibbonIndependent0%
  • IMichael "Mike" ThurowIndependent0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)