On August 28, two months before the Budget and with PM Andy Burnham only refusing to rule tax rises out, the VICO model made three calls: a net increase in the Autumn Budget, workers shielded, and capital as the likeliest target, while deliberately pricing capital gains itself below a coin flip. Chancellor John Healey’s Budget yesterday hit all three.

Two months ago the model put the rise all but certain at 83%, and it arrived. Healey’s hikes take cumulative Labour tax rises past £70bn and cut fiscal headroom to just £15bn.

It also bet workers would be spared, pricing a hit to income tax, employee National Insurance, or VAT at just 16%, and they were: Healey kept the manifesto pledge and left all three untouched.

Its caution on the method paid off too. It put a capital gains rate rise below a coin flip at 46%, and the rate held, with Healey reaching capital through other levers instead, cutting Business Asset Disposal Relief from £1m to £500,000 and raising the bank profit levy by 3 points.

The model sees little near-term tax action and doubts capital gains or the bank levy will be expanded in the immediate future.