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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Alaska

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Senate

U.S. Senate

Win probability
  • RGerald L. "Jer" "Jerry" Heikes0%
  • OSidney I. "Sid" Hill0%
  • OHeather G. McElwain0%
  • DMary Sattler Peltola55.9%
  • RDaniel J. "Dan" Sullivan, Jr.0%
  • RDan S. Sullivan44.1%
Details & rationale →

Alaska · Race details

U.S. Senate

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • RGerald L. "Jer" "Jerry" HeikesRepublican0%
  • OSidney I. "Sid" HillWrite-in0%
  • OHeather G. McElwainWrite-in0%
  • DMary Sattler PeltolaDemocratic55.9%
  • RDaniel J. "Dan" Sullivan, Jr.Republican0%
  • RDan S. SullivanRepublican44.1%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. Senator Dan S. Sullivan and Daniel J. "Dan" Sullivan, Jr. are distinct, unrelated candidates. The source classifies the latter as Republican but notes that his sample-ballot party label was blank. The source also lists write-ins alongside the top-four field. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Sidney I. "Sid" Hill — Undeclared; Heather G. McElwain — Republican.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 3 (opens in a new tab)