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Back to US Midterm Tracker 2026

Texas

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Senate

U.S. Senate

Win probability
  • DJames Talarico61.3%
  • RWarren Kenneth "Ken" Paxton, Jr.38.7%
  • LTheodore E. "Ted" Brown, Jr.0%
  • OAvery Lamarr Ayers0%
  • OBradford Winston "Brad" Hall0%
  • OZul Mirza Mohamed0%
  • OJade Smalls Simmons0%
Details & rationale →

Texas · Race details

U.S. Senate

Forecast as of Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Win probabilities

  • DJames TalaricoDemocratic61.3%
  • RWarren Kenneth "Ken" Paxton, Jr.Republican38.7%
  • LTheodore E. "Ted" Brown, Jr.Libertarian0%
  • OAvery Lamarr AyersWrite-in0%
  • OBradford Winston "Brad" HallWrite-in0%
  • OZul Mirza MohamedWrite-in0%
  • OJade Smalls SimmonsWrite-in0%

Race rationale

Loading rationale…

Candidate sources & notes

Source-listed candidates retrieved 28 September 2026; not an official certification or completeness claim. Additional affiliations not shown as ballot party labels: Avery Lamarr Ayers — Republican; Zul Mirza Mohamed — American; Jade Smalls Simmons — Independent.

Candidate source 1 (opens in a new tab)Candidate source 2 (opens in a new tab)