Israel votes on October 27 for the 120-seat Knesset, the first election to run a full term since 1988, with Netanyahu still on trial for corruption and running roughly even with former army chief Gadi Eisenkot of the new Yashar party.

No single party has ever won an outright majority in the Knesset, meaning smaller parties on both fringes will be critical to forming a government, which can take months or stall completely.

The model sees Netanyahu’s time running short, with Eisenkot his likeliest replacement and the field so splintered that no party can govern alone: 71% that Netanyahu is out as prime minister within a year, 42% that Eisenkot takes over, and just 8% that any single party wins a majority of seats.

A VICO Causal Explorer on Netanyahu’s chances shows what keeps him in power: 

The biggest threat to his return:

An Eisenkot win would pivot Israel toward security and order over settlement expansion, though it would collide with the right almost immediately. A VICO Scenario Explorer on an Eisenkot government:

Even so, the 9% majority odds are the real warning: whoever wins inherits the same coalition math that has forced repeated deadlocks, so the likeliest story remains a fragile government over a decisive one.