House Democrats voted down a Republican amendment to lock the Supreme Court at nine justices, technically keeping the door to expansion open.

The VICO model reads the whole fight as theater, since neither expansion nor a formal lock is anywhere close to happening.

According to the model, expansion is a long shot at 13% even if Democrats controlled both houses and the presidency, because moderate members view the action as setting a dangerous precedent for more expansion in the future.

A constitutional lock is even harder, effectively a non-starter at just 1%. Amending the Constitution takes a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers and ratification by 38 states, an impossible bar in a country this divided, hence a near-zero reading.

The size of the Court will stay a live political talking point, useful for fundraising and base energy on both sides.

But the model sees almost no chance it meaningfully changes, so the votes are a message, not a mechanism. We are calling this story noise.