Yesterday, VICO told you the Houthis would take the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, today they did. The Houthis took Yemen's Red Sea coastline and a passage that carries roughly a quarter of seaborne oil, resolving the model's 75% capture call.

Saudi Arabia is already striking Houthi positions, and the model reads the capture as the start of a scramble that will likely remove Houthi control eventually.

The VICO model expects the Houthis to monetize the strait with a toll, given they now have both the capability and strategic incentive to do so.

The model doubts the hold lasts: a thinly held coastline under Saudi air attack is hard to keep, so it gives better-than-even odds they are pushed out before year end.

But US involvement looks shakier today than yesterday. This morning President Trump reportedly denied Saudi requests for US strikes on the Houthis, dropping the odds of a US strike to 40% from 78%. US escort missions now also are unlikely, at 35%.

Expect tolls and intermittent disruption while the Houthis hold the coast. But under sustained Saudi attacks, the VICO model expects them to lose control within the year. 

That means higher shipping costs in the short term as tankers have to pay the toll, and face higher risk transit. But it also means eventual relief when the Houthis are pushed back.