Washington Set to Stall on AI, Leaving Regulation to the States

This story and its forecasts were created by the VICO AI model and edited by the VICO editorial team.

ISSUE: A federal hole on AI regulation

As states like California pass large AI legislation packages, the federal government has remained mostly silent.
The VICO model expects the inaction to extend through 2027.

REASONING: Gridlock wins in Washington

The single likeliest to pass is not an AI-governance law at all, but a national-security one aimed at China, at 42%.
Deepfake and likeness protections have a middling shot, helped by bipartisan support and concrete-harm framing, at 30%.
The ambitious bills are effectively dead on arrival, at 9% and 6% respectively: a preemption bill that would create federal uniformity over state AI laws, and a measure criminalizing election deepfakes.

FORECASTS:

— 42%: The probability that the Deterring American AI Model Theft Act, criminalizing theft of US model weights, becomes law before 2028.

— 30%: The probability that the NO FAKES Act, a federal right against unauthorized AI voice and face clones, becomes law before 2028.

— 9%: The probability that the American AI Leadership and Uniformity Act, which would create federal uniformity on AI laws and pre-empt state legislative action, becomes law before 2028.

— 6%: The probability that the Protect Elections from Deceptive AI Act, which would make distributing deceptive AI (like AI videos of candidates) to influence an election illegal, becomes law before 2028.

SO WHAT: The burden falls to the states

In the federal government's absence, expect a patchwork of different laws to be passed by different states, each taking the problem into their own hands.
- 70%: The probability that at least five states pass major AI regulatory frameworks by the end of 2027.
For AI firms, that means complying with a large web of legal codes, and ensuring nationwide products comply with the strictest statewide guidelines.

VICOFDHXWill H.R. 8283, the Deterring American AI Model Theft Act of 2026, or substantially similar legislation, be enacted into law before December 31, 2027?AT PUBLISH 42%

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VICONQTFWill the Nurture Originals, Foster Art, and Keep Entertainment Safe (NO FAKES) Act be signed into law before December 31, 2027?

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VICOJHRCWill H.R. 5388, the American Artificial Intelligence Leadership and Uniformity Act, or any bill with substantially similar provisions, be enacted into law before December 31, 2027?AT PUBLISH 9%

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VICOALMNWill the Protect Elections from Deceptive AI Act (S. 2770) be enacted into law before December 31, 2027?AT PUBLISH 6%

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VICONPJKWill five or more additional U.S. states enact major AI regulatory frameworks before December 31, 2027?AT PUBLISH 72%

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