Last week, Republicans held a midterm convention in Texas, which served in part to fundraise for Senate candidate Ken Paxton who is on the ropes in early polling.

The VICO model treats Paxton as a slight underdog in both ad spending, and election odds.

Democrat James Talarico has raised a record-setting $70 million in direct donations, compared to Paxton's total around $15 million.

In an attempt to keep Paxton alive, Republicans pledged tens of millions in PAC spending.

But at 48%, the VICO model argues Talarico's continued grassroots support is likely to keep pace with Republican PAC spending, possibly outspending pro-Paxton forces.

Talarico's donor network is likely to remain strong. The VICO model argues the Democrat's strong polling numbers will continue to energize donors.

Without a fundraising advantage, Paxton will have to turn his polling deficit around by other means, leaving Talarico a slight favorite in a close race.